My attempt at a TLDR for this: Bayesian assign a probability to each belief in order to represent uncertainty but this is insufficient because there are multiple kinds of uncertainty: vagueness, approximation, context-dependence, and sense vs nonsense, knightian. And sometimes we humans make logical errors when we try to do bayesian inference.
My attempt at a TLDR for this: Bayesian assign a probability to each belief in order to represent uncertainty but this is insufficient because there are multiple kinds of uncertainty: vagueness, approximation, context-dependence, and sense vs nonsense, knightian. And sometimes we humans make logical errors when we try to do bayesian inference.