I never got around to updating based on the GTC 2025 announcement but I do have the Blackwell to Rubin efficiency gain down as ~2.0x adjusted by die size so looks like we are in agreement there (though I attributed it a little differently based on information I could find at the time).
So the first models will start being trained on Rubin no earlier than late 2026, much more likely only in 2027 [...]
Rubin Ultra is another big step ~1 year after Rubin, with 2x more compute dies per chip and 2x more chips per rack, so it’s a reason to plan pacing the scaling a bit rather than rushing it in 2026-2027. Such plans will make rushing it more difficult if there is suddenly a reason to do so, and 4 GW with non-Ultra Rubin seems a bit sudden.
Agree! I wrote this before knowing about the Rubin Ultra roadmap, but this part of the forecast starts to be affected somewhat by the intelligence explosion. Specifically an urgent demand for research experiment compute and inference specialised chips for running automated researchers.
Thanks for the comment Vladimir!
I never got around to updating based on the GTC 2025 announcement but I do have the Blackwell to Rubin efficiency gain down as ~2.0x adjusted by die size so looks like we are in agreement there (though I attributed it a little differently based on information I could find at the time).
Agreed! I have them coming into use in early 2027 in this chart.
Agreed! As you noted we have the early version of Agent-2 at 1e28 fp16 in late 2026.
Agree! I wrote this before knowing about the Rubin Ultra roadmap, but this part of the forecast starts to be affected somewhat by the intelligence explosion. Specifically an urgent demand for research experiment compute and inference specialised chips for running automated researchers.