Did you set up the survey in a way that you can treat the people who haven’t had Covid as a control?
If not, I’m afraid this is gonna be pretty inconclusive — my best explanation is that people are blaming ~every health ailment they have on long Covid, even if it’s unrelated.
I think one of Zvi’s recent posts highlighted a study that convinced him that long Covid mostly wasn’t a thing, but I can’t seem to find it now.
UK’s ONS has a nice comparison with controls which shows a clear difference, see Fig 1. (Note that this release uses laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 only, unlike some of their other releases.)
I suppose that you mean the paper linked in this post:
Claiming to have Covid-19 was correlated with claiming to have Long Covid.
Actually having Covid-19 was not correlated with anything other than anosmia.
That said, I definitely know people with ongoing health problem after recovering from covid, and I would be really confused if this turned out to be just a belief.
I’m very curious about this as well. I expect MTurk (which Positly is built on) to disproportionately draw from people willing to tolerate a low wage for increased flexibility, who are disproportionately disabled.
Based on a study by the University Mainz (Germany) it seems to me that long Covid is real, but not necessarily if you look at the specific symptoms thought to be associated with long covid.
They compared three groups: Group 1 Covid patients (“wissentlich infizierte”) Group 2 persons with Covid antibodies not knowing that they had Covid (“unwissentlich infizierte”) Group 3 persons without Covid antibodies (“ohne Infektion”)
a) Looking at a list of possible long Covid symptoms 59.5% of group 1 were asymptomatic, 60.4% of group 2 and 54.3% of group 3. Serious long Covid symptoms 7.3% in group 1, 9.3% in group 2 and 11.3% in group 3. [slides 18 and 21]. Taking this at face value would indicate a small protective effect for getting Covid symptoms against long Covid (not the official conclusions of that study, of course, and mine neither, but it would have been such an amusing headline).
b) Looking at the subjective health state, however, yielded more plausible results: 29.8% of group 1 (knowingly infected) reported worse health compared to before the pandemic, whereas 22.4% of group 2 (unknowingly infected) and 22.0% of group 3 (not infected) [see slide 13]. Maybe the difference between group 1 and groups 2+3 could be seen as a rough estimate for long Covid (my conclusion, not necessarily the study’s), that would put the risk for long Covid at about 7.5%. Of course, there are factors that could lead to this estimate being too low (having had Covid reducing the anxiety related health problems compared to the other groups; then the organ based health problems for group 1 could be more frequent than 7.5% to get to the same overall results) or too high (persons who know they had Covid think they should say that their health is worse, e.g. because of the discussion about long Covid.).
Did you set up the survey in a way that you can treat the people who haven’t had Covid as a control?
If not, I’m afraid this is gonna be pretty inconclusive — my best explanation is that people are blaming ~every health ailment they have on long Covid, even if it’s unrelated.
I think one of Zvi’s recent posts highlighted a study that convinced him that long Covid mostly wasn’t a thing, but I can’t seem to find it now.
UK’s ONS has a nice comparison with controls which shows a clear difference, see Fig 1. (Note that this release uses laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 only, unlike some of their other releases.)
I suppose that you mean the paper linked in this post:
That said, I definitely know people with ongoing health problem after recovering from covid, and I would be really confused if this turned out to be just a belief.
I’m very curious about this as well. I expect MTurk (which Positly is built on) to disproportionately draw from people willing to tolerate a low wage for increased flexibility, who are disproportionately disabled.
n probably too small to read much into it, but yes: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Rtvo6qhFde6TnDng/positly-covid-survey-2-controlled-productivity-data
Based on a study by the University Mainz (Germany) it seems to me that long Covid is real, but not necessarily if you look at the specific symptoms thought to be associated with long covid.
They compared three groups:
Group 1 Covid patients (“wissentlich infizierte”)
Group 2 persons with Covid antibodies not knowing that they had Covid (“unwissentlich infizierte”)
Group 3 persons without Covid antibodies (“ohne Infektion”)
a) Looking at a list of possible long Covid symptoms 59.5% of group 1 were asymptomatic, 60.4% of group 2 and 54.3% of group 3. Serious long Covid symptoms 7.3% in group 1, 9.3% in group 2 and 11.3% in group 3. [slides 18 and 21]. Taking this at face value would indicate a small protective effect for getting Covid symptoms against long Covid (not the official conclusions of that study, of course, and mine neither, but it would have been such an amusing headline).
b) Looking at the subjective health state, however, yielded more plausible results:
29.8% of group 1 (knowingly infected) reported worse health compared to before the pandemic, whereas 22.4% of group 2 (unknowingly infected) and 22.0% of group 3 (not infected) [see slide 13]. Maybe the difference between group 1 and groups 2+3 could be seen as a rough estimate for long Covid (my conclusion, not necessarily the study’s), that would put the risk for long Covid at about 7.5%. Of course, there are factors that could lead to this estimate being too low (having had Covid reducing the anxiety related health problems compared to the other groups; then the organ based health problems for group 1 could be more frequent than 7.5% to get to the same overall results) or too high (persons who know they had Covid think they should say that their health is worse, e.g. because of the discussion about long Covid.).