“Would you change your mind if you were convinced of X” carries the connotation “if I managed to give you an argument for X, and you couldn’t rebut it, would you change your mind?” The answer to that should be “no” for many values of X even if the answer to the original question is “yes”. The fact that you couldn’t rebut the argument may mean that it’s true. It may also just mean the argument is full of holes but the person is really good at convincing you. How do you know that the person who convinced you of X isn’t another case of Eliezer convincing you to let the AI out of a box?
If a lot of scientists or other experts vetted the claim of such an X and it was not only personally convincing, but had a substantial following in the community of experts, then I might change my mind.
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I am not very impressed by that.
“Would you change your mind if you were convinced of X” carries the connotation “if I managed to give you an argument for X, and you couldn’t rebut it, would you change your mind?” The answer to that should be “no” for many values of X even if the answer to the original question is “yes”. The fact that you couldn’t rebut the argument may mean that it’s true. It may also just mean the argument is full of holes but the person is really good at convincing you. How do you know that the person who convinced you of X isn’t another case of Eliezer convincing you to let the AI out of a box?
If a lot of scientists or other experts vetted the claim of such an X and it was not only personally convincing, but had a substantial following in the community of experts, then I might change my mind.
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That seems to suggest you believe peer review is a bad idea. Is that true?