Do AI timeline predictions factor in increases in funding and effort put into AI as it becomes more mainstream and in the public eye? Or are they just based on things carrying on about the same? If the latter is the case then I would imagine that the actual timeline is probably considerably shorter.
Similarly, is the possibility for companies, governments, etc being further along in developing AGI than is publicly known, factored in to AI timeline predictions?
Depends on who’s predicting, but usually yes. Although the resulting predictions are much more fuzzy, since you have to estimate how funding will change and how far ahead are the known secret labs, and how many really secret labs are in existence. Then you also have to factor in foreign advances, e.g. China.
Do AI timeline predictions factor in increases in funding and effort put into AI as it becomes more mainstream and in the public eye? Or are they just based on things carrying on about the same? If the latter is the case then I would imagine that the actual timeline is probably considerably shorter.
Similarly, is the possibility for companies, governments, etc being further along in developing AGI than is publicly known, factored in to AI timeline predictions?
Depends on who’s predicting, but usually yes. Although the resulting predictions are much more fuzzy, since you have to estimate how funding will change and how far ahead are the known secret labs, and how many really secret labs are in existence. Then you also have to factor in foreign advances, e.g. China.