To prevent being ambiguous, I’ll define “extremely short“ as AGI before 1st July 2024.
I have looked at surveys, which generally suggest the overall opinion to be that it is highly unlikely. As someone who only started looking into AI when ChatGPT was released and gained a lot of public interest, it feels like everything is changing very rapidly. It seems like I see new articles every day and people are using AI for more and more impressive things. It seems like big companies are putting lots more money into AI as well. From my understanding, ChatGPT also gets better with more use.
The surveys on timeline estimates I have looked at generally seem to be from at least before ChatGPT was released. I don’t know how much peoples timeline estimates have changed over the past few months say, and I don’t know by how much. Has recent events in the past few months drastically shortened timeline predictions?
This image feels increasingly more likely to me to be where we are at. I think a decent amount of this is because from my perspective AI has gone from being something that I only hear about occasionally to being something that seems to be talked about everywhere, with the release of ChatGPT seeming to be the main cause.
How likely are extremely short timelines?
To prevent being ambiguous, I’ll define “extremely short“ as AGI before 1st July 2024.
I have looked at surveys, which generally suggest the overall opinion to be that it is highly unlikely. As someone who only started looking into AI when ChatGPT was released and gained a lot of public interest, it feels like everything is changing very rapidly. It seems like I see new articles every day and people are using AI for more and more impressive things. It seems like big companies are putting lots more money into AI as well. From my understanding, ChatGPT also gets better with more use.
The surveys on timeline estimates I have looked at generally seem to be from at least before ChatGPT was released. I don’t know how much peoples timeline estimates have changed over the past few months say, and I don’t know by how much. Has recent events in the past few months drastically shortened timeline predictions?
This image feels increasingly more likely to me to be where we are at. I think a decent amount of this is because from my perspective AI has gone from being something that I only hear about occasionally to being something that seems to be talked about everywhere, with the release of ChatGPT seeming to be the main cause.