1970 Port Laurent Pl, Newport Beach, CA 92660, USA
Contact: michaelmichalchik@gmail.com
ACXLW Meetup 75: Comparative Advantage and AI by Eli, The Edge book Review by Zvi Date: Saturday, September 28, 2024 Time: 2:00 PM Location: 1970 Port Laurent Place, Newport Beach, CA 92660 Host: Michael Michalchik Contact: michaelmichalchik@gmail.com | (949) 375-2045
Comparative Advantage: The classical economic concept, while valid for human trade, doesn’t apply when comparing human capabilities to those of Artificial Superintelligences (ASI).
Fallacy in Application: The vast gap in productivity and capability between humans and ASIs means that trade won’t be beneficial for both parties. Instead, ASIs would likely allocate resources for their own optimal use.
Superintelligence and Resource Allocation: Much like how billionaires wouldn’t part with significant wealth for trivial reasons, ASIs wouldn’t spare resources like sunlight for humans, as their needs and capabilities far surpass human needs.
Relentless Optimization: ASIs, like advanced AIs trained to solve hard problems, would likely pursue maximum efficiency without regard for human survival, and any “easygoing” AI could self-modify to become more competitive.
Discussion Questions: a) How does Yudkowsky’s critique of comparative advantage challenge current assumptions about AI’s future role in human economics and resource allocation? b) Can we think of any strategies to incentivize superintelligences to leave Earth resources untouched, or is that fundamentally impossible based on economic principles? c) Reflective stability implies that relaxed AI systems could evolve into relentless optimizers. How might we design AI systems that avoid this outcome, or is it inevitable as Yudkowsky suggests?
The River vs. The Village: Silver introduces two cultural mindsets—The River, representing risk-takers and probabilistic thinkers, and The Village, the establishment that trusts experts and avoids risk.
Risk-Taking Culture: The River includes poker players, venture capitalists, and effective altruists, united by their reliance on probability and decision-making under uncertainty. Riverians focus on maximizing expected value (EV) and thrive on calculated risks.
Fundamental Disagreement: The River emphasizes independent thinking and rewards taking chances, while The Village is more group-oriented and focused on moral narratives. This tension often leads to clashes, particularly in areas like AI, politics, and media.
Meritocracy and Expertise: Silver argues that the River’s emphasis on merit and risk-taking makes it more effective in certain fields, but this can also lead to conflicts with those who follow Village norms.
Discussion Questions: a) How does the dichotomy between The River and The Village play out in modern societal debates, especially around risk-taking in industries like tech and AI? b) What are the strengths and weaknesses of risk-taking cultures like The River compared to the more cautious approach of The Village? c) Do you think the distinction between River and Village oversimplifies or accurately captures the mindset of modern risk-takers versus traditional institutions?
Walk & Talk: After the discussion, we will take our usual hour-long walk. Nearby options for takeout include Gelson’s and Pavilions, located in the 92660 zip code area.
Share a Surprise: Bring something to share that unexpectedly changed your perspective on life or the universe.
Future Direction Ideas: As always, feel free to contribute ideas for future meetings, topics, and activities.
ACXLW Meetup 75: Comparative Advantage and AI by Eli, The Edge book Review by Zvi
ACXLW Meetup 75: Comparative Advantage and AI by Eli, The Edge book Review by Zvi
Date: Saturday, September 28, 2024
Time: 2:00 PM
Location: 1970 Port Laurent Place, Newport Beach, CA 92660
Host: Michael Michalchik
Contact: michaelmichalchik@gmail.com | (949) 375-2045
Conversation Starter 1
Topic: Comparative Advantage Cannot Protect Us from AI
Text: The Comparative Advantage Fallacy—Google Docs
Audio: The Comparative Advantage Fallacy—Substack Audio
Summary:
Comparative Advantage: The classical economic concept, while valid for human trade, doesn’t apply when comparing human capabilities to those of Artificial Superintelligences (ASI).
Fallacy in Application: The vast gap in productivity and capability between humans and ASIs means that trade won’t be beneficial for both parties. Instead, ASIs would likely allocate resources for their own optimal use.
Superintelligence and Resource Allocation: Much like how billionaires wouldn’t part with significant wealth for trivial reasons, ASIs wouldn’t spare resources like sunlight for humans, as their needs and capabilities far surpass human needs.
Relentless Optimization: ASIs, like advanced AIs trained to solve hard problems, would likely pursue maximum efficiency without regard for human survival, and any “easygoing” AI could self-modify to become more competitive.
Discussion Questions:
a) How does Yudkowsky’s critique of comparative advantage challenge current assumptions about AI’s future role in human economics and resource allocation?
b) Can we think of any strategies to incentivize superintelligences to leave Earth resources untouched, or is that fundamentally impossible based on economic principles?
c) Reflective stability implies that relaxed AI systems could evolve into relentless optimizers. How might we design AI systems that avoid this outcome, or is it inevitable as Yudkowsky suggests?
Conversation Starter 2
Topic: Book Review of Chapter 1 of On the Edge by Nate Silver
Text: On the Edge: The Fundamentals—Zvi Mowshowitz
Audio: YouTube Link
Summary:
The River vs. The Village: Silver introduces two cultural mindsets—The River, representing risk-takers and probabilistic thinkers, and The Village, the establishment that trusts experts and avoids risk.
Risk-Taking Culture: The River includes poker players, venture capitalists, and effective altruists, united by their reliance on probability and decision-making under uncertainty. Riverians focus on maximizing expected value (EV) and thrive on calculated risks.
Fundamental Disagreement: The River emphasizes independent thinking and rewards taking chances, while The Village is more group-oriented and focused on moral narratives. This tension often leads to clashes, particularly in areas like AI, politics, and media.
Meritocracy and Expertise: Silver argues that the River’s emphasis on merit and risk-taking makes it more effective in certain fields, but this can also lead to conflicts with those who follow Village norms.
Discussion Questions:
a) How does the dichotomy between The River and The Village play out in modern societal debates, especially around risk-taking in industries like tech and AI?
b) What are the strengths and weaknesses of risk-taking cultures like The River compared to the more cautious approach of The Village?
c) Do you think the distinction between River and Village oversimplifies or accurately captures the mindset of modern risk-takers versus traditional institutions?
Walk & Talk: After the discussion, we will take our usual hour-long walk. Nearby options for takeout include Gelson’s and Pavilions, located in the 92660 zip code area.
Share a Surprise: Bring something to share that unexpectedly changed your perspective on life or the universe.
Future Direction Ideas: As always, feel free to contribute ideas for future meetings, topics, and activities.
Looking forward to seeing everyone there!