Known harpy, kraken, merpeople, and shark attacks seem to be on a gentle rising trend.
Known pirate attacks fall substantially from 1401 onwards, but are still the most common. Despite this the year and month doesn’t appear to have much impact on losses, and there is no obvious correlation between the month and the frequency of a given attack.
The direction doesn’t appear to have much impact either.
Looking at how the damage is distributed across known encounters
- Harpy peaks at around 10-15 then falls away, none have done more than 23
- Kraken peaks at around 55 then falls away, none have done more than 78
- Pirates peaks around 15-20, and falls away, none have done more than 64
- Sharks peaks at around 20 −25 then falls away, none have done more than 56
- water elemental is strongly peaked around 80, but falls away rapidly, none have done more than 85
Suggests the only serious threats are:
- crabmonsters
- demon whale
- merpeople
- nessie
All of these peaked below 100 percent damage with 1 exception the demon whale, which suggests this is the biggest threat. With this in mind I should definitely invest in all 20 oars for 20 gp.
Nessie is responsible the causing the second highest number of incidents with very heavy damage, so investing another 30gp in cannons looks sensible.
Merpeople are the next biggest threat, but bribing them could make matters worse if it leads to more dangerous encounters. There were 2678 known merpeople encounters. If we assume they are spread evenly across the other 8 encounter types that means at least 334 demon whale attacks. Looking at the distribution of damage caused by the demon whale attacks it looks like the peak is likely to be well over 100 percent damage, and they represent a very real threat even with all the extra oars. It is not at all clear if this would represent a net reduction in risk, and when I consider that the high cost would prevent me investing in crabmonsterdefenses the benefits of this look dubious.
The crabmonsters are the only other encounter that do a large amount of damage, so arming the carpenters for 20gp looks sensible.
For the remaining 35 gp investing money to reduce a minute risk to my life and impressing the admiralty with less damage done to the ship seems a lot more attractive than minutely increasing the risk to my life and impressing them with saving money. Of the lesser threats the water elementals do the most damage, so if any of them are going to get me it is most likely to be them, so I will invest the last of the gold in the foam swords.
Spoiler protection
Known harpy, kraken, merpeople, and shark attacks seem to be on a gentle rising trend.
Known pirate attacks fall substantially from 1401 onwards, but are still the most common. Despite this the year and month doesn’t appear to have much impact on losses, and there is no obvious correlation between the month and the frequency of a given attack.
The direction doesn’t appear to have much impact either.
Looking at how the damage is distributed across known encounters
- Harpy peaks at around 10-15 then falls away, none have done more than 23
- Kraken peaks at around 55 then falls away, none have done more than 78
- Pirates peaks around 15-20, and falls away, none have done more than 64
- Sharks peaks at around 20 −25 then falls away, none have done more than 56
- water elemental is strongly peaked around 80, but falls away rapidly, none have done more than 85
Suggests the only serious threats are:
- crabmonsters
- demon whale
- merpeople
- nessie
All of these peaked below 100 percent damage with 1 exception the demon whale, which suggests this is the biggest threat. With this in mind I should definitely invest in all 20 oars for 20 gp.
Nessie is responsible the causing the second highest number of incidents with very heavy damage, so investing another 30gp in cannons looks sensible.
Merpeople are the next biggest threat, but bribing them could make matters worse if it leads to more dangerous encounters. There were 2678 known merpeople encounters. If we assume they are spread evenly across the other 8 encounter types that means at least 334 demon whale attacks. Looking at the distribution of damage caused by the demon whale attacks it looks like the peak is likely to be well over 100 percent damage, and they represent a very real threat even with all the extra oars. It is not at all clear if this would represent a net reduction in risk, and when I consider that the high cost would prevent me investing in crabmonster defenses the benefits of this look dubious.
The crabmonsters are the only other encounter that do a large amount of damage, so arming the carpenters for 20gp looks sensible.
For the remaining 35 gp investing money to reduce a minute risk to my life and impressing the admiralty with less damage done to the ship seems a lot more attractive than minutely increasing the risk to my life and impressing them with saving money. Of the lesser threats the water elementals do the most damage, so if any of them are going to get me it is most likely to be them, so I will invest the last of the gold in the foam swords.
Final decision:
- 20 oars @ 20gp
- 3 cannons @ 30gp
- Arm the carpenters @ 20gp
- Foam swords for the deck crew @ 15gp
- 15 gp under budget