The related books Superforecasting and Future Babble are about predicting the socio-econo-political future—how people usually fail at it, esp. overconfident pundits—and how it doesn’t matter because people forget and they get invited again. The contents align nicely with LW-themes (in terms of instrumental rationality, probabilistic reasoning and recognizing biases etc.), and apply them to read-world prediction making. Some people get quite good at foreseeing events.
(Links are to my GoodReads notes about them)
The related books Superforecasting and Future Babble are about predicting the socio-econo-political future—how people usually fail at it, esp. overconfident pundits—and how it doesn’t matter because people forget and they get invited again. The contents align nicely with LW-themes (in terms of instrumental rationality, probabilistic reasoning and recognizing biases etc.), and apply them to read-world prediction making. Some people get quite good at foreseeing events.