Most of the benefits of current-gen generative AI models are unrealized. The scaffolding, infrastructure, etc. of GPT-4 level models are still mostly hacks and experiments. It took decades for the true value of touch-screens, GPS and text messaging to be realized in the form of the smart phone. Even if for some strange improbable reason SOTA model training were to stop right now, there are still likely multiples of gains to be realized simply via wrappers and post-training.
The scaling hypothesis has held far longer than many people have anticipated. GPT-4 level models were trained on last years compute. As long as NVidia continues to increase compute/watt and compute/price, many gains on SOTA models will happen for free
The tactical advantage of AGI will not be lost on governments, individual actors, incumbent companies, etc. as AI becomes more and more mainstream. Even if reaching AGI takes 10x the price most people anticipate now, it would still be worthwhile as an investment.
Model capabilities are perhaps the smoothest value/price equation of any cutting edge tech. As in, there are no “big gaps” wherein a huge investment is needed before value is realized. Even reaching a highly capable sub-AGI would be worth enormous investment. This is not the same as the investment that led to for example, the atom bomb or moon landing, in which there is no consolation prize.
I’m not preparing for it because it’s not gonna happen
I would like to read your arguments in this statement.
Most of the benefits of current-gen generative AI models are unrealized. The scaffolding, infrastructure, etc. of GPT-4 level models are still mostly hacks and experiments. It took decades for the true value of touch-screens, GPS and text messaging to be realized in the form of the smart phone. Even if for some strange improbable reason SOTA model training were to stop right now, there are still likely multiples of gains to be realized simply via wrappers and post-training.
The scaling hypothesis has held far longer than many people have anticipated. GPT-4 level models were trained on last years compute. As long as NVidia continues to increase compute/watt and compute/price, many gains on SOTA models will happen for free
The tactical advantage of AGI will not be lost on governments, individual actors, incumbent companies, etc. as AI becomes more and more mainstream. Even if reaching AGI takes 10x the price most people anticipate now, it would still be worthwhile as an investment.
Model capabilities are perhaps the smoothest value/price equation of any cutting edge tech. As in, there are no “big gaps” wherein a huge investment is needed before value is realized. Even reaching a highly capable sub-AGI would be worth enormous investment. This is not the same as the investment that led to for example, the atom bomb or moon landing, in which there is no consolation prize.