In solar-heavy areas before batteries (and without hydro), electricity in the early evening was provided by natural gas peaker plants, which can and do quickly shut off. Consider a scenario with growing demand. Prices in the early evening have to get pretty high before it’s worth paying for a whole natural gas plant just to run it for only a few hours.
The natural gas generation capacity that you need to cover for solar when it’s cloudy is, of course, less than what is required to make up for loss of solar after sundown.
Context: right now gas peaker plants with ~10% utilization have LCOE of about 20 cents/kWh, about 3-5x most other energy sources. I think in the proposed scenario here we’d be more like 20-40% utilization, since we’d also get some use out of these systems overnight night and in winter.
If this became much more common and people had to pay such variable prices, we’d also be able to do a lot more load shifting to minimize the impact on overall energy costs (when to dry clothes and heat water, using phase change materials in HVAC, using thermal storage in industrial facilities’ systems, etc.).
In solar-heavy areas before batteries (and without hydro), electricity in the early evening was provided by natural gas peaker plants, which can and do quickly shut off. Consider a scenario with growing demand. Prices in the early evening have to get pretty high before it’s worth paying for a whole natural gas plant just to run it for only a few hours.
You need to pay anyway for the gas plant if you want to have electricity even on days where the sun isn’t shining.
The natural gas generation capacity that you need to cover for solar when it’s cloudy is, of course, less than what is required to make up for loss of solar after sundown.
Context: right now gas peaker plants with ~10% utilization have LCOE of about 20 cents/kWh, about 3-5x most other energy sources. I think in the proposed scenario here we’d be more like 20-40% utilization, since we’d also get some use out of these systems overnight night and in winter.
If this became much more common and people had to pay such variable prices, we’d also be able to do a lot more load shifting to minimize the impact on overall energy costs (when to dry clothes and heat water, using phase change materials in HVAC, using thermal storage in industrial facilities’ systems, etc.).