Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll feel forced to kill Quirrel:
0.2 > p > 0.15 [UPDATED from 0.1 > p > 0.05]
Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll feel forced to kill Dumbledore:
0.12 > p > 0.08
Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll end up killing the wrong person (bad judgement call on Harry’s behalf):
0.15 > p > 0.1
Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll end up killing the wrong person (bad execution on Harry’s behalf):
0.1 > p > 0.05
Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll not kill the right bad guy at the right time hence become indirectly responsible for the deaths of innocents:
0.3 > p > 0.2
Your probabilities seem way too low to me. Just one chance in 10 that because of the vow he’ll be forced to kill the one we have many evidence to believe he’s the arch-enemy ? Can you elaborate the reasons why you put such a low probability to that ?
Yes, of course. First of all, I just updated it to 0.15-0.20. This might actually be a bit high, but I’ve set it higher than what I feel is right due to my bias (consisting of Eliezer finding a more interesting way of writing the story).
It is “so low” due to the following:
a) I believe that Quirrel is not seeking a physical confrontation with Harry (earlier we saw him toss Harry a knut (that could have been a portkey to a volcano))
a.1.) Harry wouldn’t win such a confrontation (a sneak attack would of course be much more likely to get the job done)
a.2.) If there is a confrontation and if that confrontation ends with the death of Quirrel, I expect the wands or Lily’s ritual to be the deciding factor, not any action of Harry’s.
b) I consider it most probable that Quirrel tries to turn Harry to his ways (0.6 < p < 0.5)
b.1) Harry might try to counter-turn Quirrel. I do doubt though that this will end with one of them dying. Killing one another seems so irrational...
c) if Harry decides Quirrel must die, he’d do better using henchmen
[I’m now officially not a fan of the editing options here]
Also, Harry really really doesn’t want to kill ANYONE. He didn’t even want to kill the nasty canon-style description of sadistic!Voldemort, for pete’s sake.
Thanks, I think part of my surprise was from a different understanding of “he’ll feel forced to kill Quirrel”, to me that means “he’ll take the decision of trying to kill Quirrel, using whatever indirect plan, surprise, henchmen, … in the process”, not just a one-to-one fight in which Harry kills Quirrel (like the way he kills Voldemort in the cannon). I agree the probability of such one-to-one fight is quite low.
I thought the probabilities sounded high! He said he’d take the killer of Narcissa as his enemy, but did he promise to kill? I’m not sure why SkyDK and to a greater extent you are moving straight to killing—albeit his intent to kill has been noted, but he’s also very anti-death.
If the vow really did say he would kill, maybe higher. But I don’t find Harry’s obsession with keeping the vow plausible: I think it’s Author Avataring, either straightforward/accidental or because Eliezer is quite deliberately exploring his own challenges and by extension that of other could-be Eliezer-types.
I think SkyDK was referring to the vow he made in chapter 85, that he’ll try the superhero way (not killing his enemies) as long as no one dies (be it a friend or just a by -stander), but that the day someone days because of his enemies, he’ll no longer restrain himself and kill them. Not to the “old” vow about avenging the death of Narcissa.
I feel pretty confident that he won’t directly kill Dumbledore (also I feel that Dumbledore is innocent, which influences my belief that Harry won’t kill him).
I think he’ll do something based on his belief that Dumbledore is evil, and that his action will be stupid and put Dumbledore or some other people into danger, probably in danger from Quirrell. That’s a standard module in these kind of stories.
Our time zones are different (hence you might have written me in the middle of my writing), but I think I reached my goal: thank you for your help. I’m still struggling a little bit with the interface.
Prediction time!
Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll feel forced to kill Quirrel: 0.2 > p > 0.15 [UPDATED from 0.1 > p > 0.05]
Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll feel forced to kill Dumbledore: 0.12 > p > 0.08
Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll end up killing the wrong person (bad judgement call on Harry’s behalf): 0.15 > p > 0.1
Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll end up killing the wrong person (bad execution on Harry’s behalf): 0.1 > p > 0.05
Due to Harry’s new vow he’ll not kill the right bad guy at the right time hence become indirectly responsible for the deaths of innocents: 0.3 > p > 0.2
Please add and/or comment on predictions.
Your probabilities seem way too low to me. Just one chance in 10 that because of the vow he’ll be forced to kill the one we have many evidence to believe he’s the arch-enemy ? Can you elaborate the reasons why you put such a low probability to that ?
I don’t think he can kill Quirrel. Certainly not without a very cunning plan and Dumbledore at his side. And vice versa.
ETA: by vice versa I meant he can’t kill Dumbledore without Quirrel’s help.
I’m sure Quirrel could kill Harry very easily if he so desired.
At least, not by the end of the school year!
Yes, of course. First of all, I just updated it to 0.15-0.20. This might actually be a bit high, but I’ve set it higher than what I feel is right due to my bias (consisting of Eliezer finding a more interesting way of writing the story).
It is “so low” due to the following:
a) I believe that Quirrel is not seeking a physical confrontation with Harry (earlier we saw him toss Harry a knut (that could have been a portkey to a volcano))
a.1.) Harry wouldn’t win such a confrontation (a sneak attack would of course be much more likely to get the job done)
a.2.) If there is a confrontation and if that confrontation ends with the death of Quirrel, I expect the wands or Lily’s ritual to be the deciding factor, not any action of Harry’s.
b) I consider it most probable that Quirrel tries to turn Harry to his ways (0.6 < p < 0.5)
b.1) Harry might try to counter-turn Quirrel. I do doubt though that this will end with one of them dying. Killing one another seems so irrational...
c) if Harry decides Quirrel must die, he’d do better using henchmen
[I’m now officially not a fan of the editing options here]
Also, Harry really really doesn’t want to kill ANYONE. He didn’t even want to kill the nasty canon-style description of sadistic!Voldemort, for pete’s sake.
Thanks, I think part of my surprise was from a different understanding of “he’ll feel forced to kill Quirrel”, to me that means “he’ll take the decision of trying to kill Quirrel, using whatever indirect plan, surprise, henchmen, … in the process”, not just a one-to-one fight in which Harry kills Quirrel (like the way he kills Voldemort in the cannon). I agree the probability of such one-to-one fight is quite low.
Even so, I doubt Quirrel would leave clues as to him killing anyone (due to him knowing Harry doesn’t like killing and me believing b))
I thought the probabilities sounded high! He said he’d take the killer of Narcissa as his enemy, but did he promise to kill? I’m not sure why SkyDK and to a greater extent you are moving straight to killing—albeit his intent to kill has been noted, but he’s also very anti-death.
If the vow really did say he would kill, maybe higher. But I don’t find Harry’s obsession with keeping the vow plausible: I think it’s Author Avataring, either straightforward/accidental or because Eliezer is quite deliberately exploring his own challenges and by extension that of other could-be Eliezer-types.
I think SkyDK was referring to the vow he made in chapter 85, that he’ll try the superhero way (not killing his enemies) as long as no one dies (be it a friend or just a by -stander), but that the day someone days because of his enemies, he’ll no longer restrain himself and kill them. Not to the “old” vow about avenging the death of Narcissa.
I feel pretty confident that he won’t directly kill Dumbledore (also I feel that Dumbledore is innocent, which influences my belief that Harry won’t kill him).
I think he’ll do something based on his belief that Dumbledore is evil, and that his action will be stupid and put Dumbledore or some other people into danger, probably in danger from Quirrell. That’s a standard module in these kind of stories.
Try putting an additional line break after each of your examples. That will come out more like (I infer that you) intended.
Our time zones are different (hence you might have written me in the middle of my writing), but I think I reached my goal: thank you for your help. I’m still struggling a little bit with the interface.