Bayes can judge you now: your analysis is half-arsed, which is not a good look when discussing a matter as serious as this.
All you’ve done is provide one misleading statistic. The base rate of experiencing psychosis may be 1-3%, but the base rate of psychotic disorders is much lower, at 0.25% or so.
But the most important factor is one that is very hard to estimate, which is what percentage of people with psychosis manifest that psychosis as false memories of being groped by a sibling. If the psychosis had involved seeing space aliens, we would be having a different discussion.
We would then have to compare this with the rate of teenagers groping their toddler siblings. This is also very difficult. A few studies claim that somewhere around 20% of women are sexually abused as children, but I don’t have a breakdown of that by source of abuse and age, etc. Obviously the figure for our particular subset of assault cases will be significantly lower, but I don’t know by how much.
I thinks it’s highly likely that the number of women groped as a toddler by a sibling is much higher than the number of women who falsely claim to be groped as a toddler by a sibling as a result of psychosis or other mental illness, although again there is high uncertainty. This certainly makes intuitive sense: absent any other information, the most likely explanation for someone being accused of a specific crime is that they committed the crime.
All the further evidence seems at least consistent with either scenario
The sudden onset of the memory could be due to onset of psychosis… or it could be a repressed memory, which can also trigger at any time.
Suppose the claim about shadowbanning is false. That could be due to psychosis, or it could be a combination of misunderstanding technology and being fearful of an abusive sibling in the tech sector. I don’t think it’s strong evidence of psychosis in particular.
Is moving 20 times evidence of psychosis? The claimed reason is that she’s broke and had to rely on sex work for money. This seems orthogonal to psychosis.
Is using Zoloft evidence for being psychotic? Only weakly, since she was taking Zoloft for non-psychotic reasons since her teen years.
The claim about her dads money being withheld is only evidence for psychosis if it is false. This would be easy for sam altman to prove, and he hasn’t yet.
I don’t think there’s enough information to be truly certain of either side, but there is more than enough information to be concerned, and to want further investigation and evidence.
Is moving 20 times evidence of psychosis? The claimed reason is that she’s broke and had to rely on sex work for money. This seems orthogonal to psychosis.
it sounds like you don’t know how evidence works.
The claim about her dads money being withheld is only evidence for psychosis if it is false
Based on your style of communication, I think it’s unlikely many people would feel comfortable telling you about these experiences, ergo the true number may be multiples higher than expected.
Bayes can judge you now: your analysis is half-arsed, which is not a good look when discussing a matter as serious as this.
All you’ve done is provide one misleading statistic. The base rate of experiencing psychosis may be 1-3%, but the base rate of psychotic disorders is much lower, at 0.25% or so.
But the most important factor is one that is very hard to estimate, which is what percentage of people with psychosis manifest that psychosis as false memories of being groped by a sibling. If the psychosis had involved seeing space aliens, we would be having a different discussion.
We would then have to compare this with the rate of teenagers groping their toddler siblings. This is also very difficult. A few studies claim that somewhere around 20% of women are sexually abused as children, but I don’t have a breakdown of that by source of abuse and age, etc. Obviously the figure for our particular subset of assault cases will be significantly lower, but I don’t know by how much.
I thinks it’s highly likely that the number of women groped as a toddler by a sibling is much higher than the number of women who falsely claim to be groped as a toddler by a sibling as a result of psychosis or other mental illness, although again there is high uncertainty. This certainly makes intuitive sense: absent any other information, the most likely explanation for someone being accused of a specific crime is that they committed the crime.
All the further evidence seems at least consistent with either scenario
The sudden onset of the memory could be due to onset of psychosis… or it could be a repressed memory, which can also trigger at any time.
Suppose the claim about shadowbanning is false. That could be due to psychosis, or it could be a combination of misunderstanding technology and being fearful of an abusive sibling in the tech sector. I don’t think it’s strong evidence of psychosis in particular.
Is moving 20 times evidence of psychosis? The claimed reason is that she’s broke and had to rely on sex work for money. This seems orthogonal to psychosis.
Is using Zoloft evidence for being psychotic? Only weakly, since she was taking Zoloft for non-psychotic reasons since her teen years.
The claim about her dads money being withheld is only evidence for psychosis if it is false. This would be easy for sam altman to prove, and he hasn’t yet.
I don’t think there’s enough information to be truly certain of either side, but there is more than enough information to be concerned, and to want further investigation and evidence.
This is almost certainly not true.
why? I don’t think it’s misleading. Here’s another source.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2298236
it sounds like you don’t know how evidence works.
ok you definitely don’t know how evidence works.
I think Duncan Sabien’s Law of Prevalence is a good frame for explaining this: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KpMNqA5BiCRozCwM3/social-dark-matter#III__The_Law_of_Prevalence
Based on your style of communication, I think it’s unlikely many people would feel comfortable telling you about these experiences, ergo the true number may be multiples higher than expected.