This doesn’t mean those pandemics, with their millions of lives lost, were unimportant. It simply means that they did not suddenly and severely shake the world economy, the way COVID-19 is doing right now.
Not sure this comment changes things much but would point out that the world economies in 2020 were a lot more integrated than in just about all other periods of time one could consider pandemic impacts. In that sense I think the impact, and particularly to things like financial asset prices, may be reduced in a less integrated world.
What might be more relevant here, but I’m not sure how to apply any adjustment factors to your x/14 scale approach is how the observation of tight integration (think all supply chain roads lead to China) and the degree of decoupling that seems to be occurring would impact some of those points.
But I do like the approach in that it does kind of keep it simple in approach and could be applied by anyone that just wanted to think about things without have a good background in math or modeling.
Not sure this comment changes things much but would point out that the world economies in 2020 were a lot more integrated than in just about all other periods of time one could consider pandemic impacts. In that sense I think the impact, and particularly to things like financial asset prices, may be reduced in a less integrated world.
What might be more relevant here, but I’m not sure how to apply any adjustment factors to your x/14 scale approach is how the observation of tight integration (think all supply chain roads lead to China) and the degree of decoupling that seems to be occurring would impact some of those points.
But I do like the approach in that it does kind of keep it simple in approach and could be applied by anyone that just wanted to think about things without have a good background in math or modeling.