I suspect that the problem isn’t a lack of data as much as it is a problem of remaining constantly vigilant (allusion intended) and being willing to pay the price of false positives. For example, if H7N9 scored highly initially, would you be OK with your family thinking that you are a fool for selling your retirement funds? This is getting into the topic of “Shut up and multiply.”
You’ve inspired me to think about what goes into the mental model of someone who does this professionally such as an epidemiologist or https://firstwatch.net/category/health-intelligence/outbreaks/, which a coworker maintains (conflict of interest alert).
I suspect that the problem isn’t a lack of data as much as it is a problem of remaining constantly vigilant (allusion intended) and being willing to pay the price of false positives. For example, if H7N9 scored highly initially, would you be OK with your family thinking that you are a fool for selling your retirement funds? This is getting into the topic of “Shut up and multiply.”