“How many countries in the Euro zone will default on bonds in 2011?” or “Will Southern Sudan become an independent country in 2011?”
It’s hard to make predictions about politics because the decision makers have perverse/unknown sets of incentives. In contrast, it’s much easier to make guesses with reasonable error bars when the decision maker is spending his/her own money.
“How many countries in the Euro zone will default on bonds in 2011?” or “Will Southern Sudan become an independent country in 2011?”
It’s hard to make predictions about politics because the decision makers have perverse/unknown sets of incentives. In contrast, it’s much easier to make guesses with reasonable error bars when the decision maker is spending his/her own money.