This post from Max More is the kind of post that I would expect to see voted off of LessWrong. I have not had a substantive conversation with Max More about cryonics, let alone my personal position, psychology, desires or motivations in over 20 years. We did correspond recently, and I have asked Max for permission to make that complete correspondence, minus personal incidentals not material to cryonics, public. He has flatly refused. Why, I do not know, but I do know that that is the only substantive communication he and I have had in decades and that it is completely documented in writing. Prior to that, at least to my knowledge, our relationship was cordial and not marred by any disagreements or conflicts. Nor do we have any confidants or intimates in common. Thus, the question arises, how would Max know anything about whether I am “envious that I’m not running things”? As he says, he doesn’t know this, he can only speculate because he has refused to speak with me on these matters.
He then goes on to say something that I find remarkable to be left unchallenged here on LessWrong:
“That depth (of knowledge) and his most excellent writing skills often fool people into believing that his judgment is better than it is”
LessWrong, as I understand it, is a forum where people are mastering the craft and science of evaluating the logic and substance of the arguments put forth by people, including thinkers and writers here and elsewhere—not based on their style, cleverness of articulation, or their speculations. If anyone has questions about the assertions I make, feel free to ask for the evidence. We may not always agree on how to weight it, but the evidence will (hopefully) always be there, and it will be credible. Where I overstep or make a mistake, you will find me quick to acknowledge and apologize.
http://chronopause.com/index.php/2011/08/09/fucked/ and sequels have cost you more than one LWer’s opinion of your judgment because it matched exactly the sort of doomsaying which has cost contrarians literally billions of dollars over the past 4 years in bad bets against the dollar and US stocks (eg. Peter Thiel’s Clarium fund alone, or Dr. Doom for that matter). It’s not a surprise if they acknowledge your facts but question your judgment, which is the same sentiment Max is expressing.
My comments about economic, social and political matters don’t speak to how people should invest in the market, or to who will win the coming election. They speak to the general condition of the economy and the culture over the long haul. As I’ve observed in print before, plenty of people will get rich, and millions of people have gotten richer, despite the fact that diversion of wealth from the people who primarily produce it is at an all time high. I am the first to acknowledge that it has been fantastic advances in productivity that have made this possible. But that doesn’t make the reality go away that the system is increasingly thwarting innovation, overspending its resource base, and appropriating vast amounts of wealth which is used inefficiently, is wasted, or is actually used for contra-productive purposes.
All I have said, in addition to these fairly mundane observations, is that, sooner or later, something’s got to give. To some extent this has already happened in that many trillions of dollars of wealth have disappeared, or been reallocated to cover “bad actions” of various kinds. The situation in Europe is actually much worse than it is here, and if it becomes impossible to maintain solvency of large EU nations such Greece, Italy and Spain, then the effect will, again, be felt in the US and elsewhere.
What I have no way of knowing is how much “re-assignable” wealth is present in the system—and just as importantly, if it will be reassigned to cover “bad acts.” That’ difficult to assess wealth covers a huge range of goods and actions, from the quality of food people eat, to whether they use paper towels or go back to using rags! I’ve never claimed any special insight in those matters, and for good reason; because the data to make those kinds of “forecasts” simply isn’t available.
So, my position is very much like that of someone who warns that “crime doesn’t pay.” It doesn’t—not in the long run, because it is destructive of productivity, and destructive of effective human social interaction. But the BIG question is, what exactly constitutes the “long run?” That’s not a joke, and I am mindful that the Soviet Union ground on for 70 years. That’s an economist’s eternity, and then some. Pepsi Cola made millions betting that Soviet Russia would continue for decades. Do I think Fidelista Cuba is doomed? Absolutely. I also think it is a miserable, oppressive place. But I wouldn’t care to give any odds on how long it will survive.
Finally, if all the “non-contrarians” on this matter are concerned with or about is financial gain, regardless of the system’s characteristics or “meta-qualities,” then I have nothing to say to them and their disappointment in my “judgment” is as understandable as it is mutual.
This post from Max More is the kind of post that I would expect to see voted off of LessWrong. I have not had a substantive conversation with Max More about cryonics, let alone my personal position, psychology, desires or motivations in over 20 years. We did correspond recently, and I have asked Max for permission to make that complete correspondence, minus personal incidentals not material to cryonics, public. He has flatly refused. Why, I do not know, but I do know that that is the only substantive communication he and I have had in decades and that it is completely documented in writing. Prior to that, at least to my knowledge, our relationship was cordial and not marred by any disagreements or conflicts. Nor do we have any confidants or intimates in common. Thus, the question arises, how would Max know anything about whether I am “envious that I’m not running things”? As he says, he doesn’t know this, he can only speculate because he has refused to speak with me on these matters.
He then goes on to say something that I find remarkable to be left unchallenged here on LessWrong:
“That depth (of knowledge) and his most excellent writing skills often fool people into believing that his judgment is better than it is”
LessWrong, as I understand it, is a forum where people are mastering the craft and science of evaluating the logic and substance of the arguments put forth by people, including thinkers and writers here and elsewhere—not based on their style, cleverness of articulation, or their speculations. If anyone has questions about the assertions I make, feel free to ask for the evidence. We may not always agree on how to weight it, but the evidence will (hopefully) always be there, and it will be credible. Where I overstep or make a mistake, you will find me quick to acknowledge and apologize.
http://chronopause.com/index.php/2011/08/09/fucked/ and sequels have cost you more than one LWer’s opinion of your judgment because it matched exactly the sort of doomsaying which has cost contrarians literally billions of dollars over the past 4 years in bad bets against the dollar and US stocks (eg. Peter Thiel’s Clarium fund alone, or Dr. Doom for that matter). It’s not a surprise if they acknowledge your facts but question your judgment, which is the same sentiment Max is expressing.
My comments about economic, social and political matters don’t speak to how people should invest in the market, or to who will win the coming election. They speak to the general condition of the economy and the culture over the long haul. As I’ve observed in print before, plenty of people will get rich, and millions of people have gotten richer, despite the fact that diversion of wealth from the people who primarily produce it is at an all time high. I am the first to acknowledge that it has been fantastic advances in productivity that have made this possible. But that doesn’t make the reality go away that the system is increasingly thwarting innovation, overspending its resource base, and appropriating vast amounts of wealth which is used inefficiently, is wasted, or is actually used for contra-productive purposes.
All I have said, in addition to these fairly mundane observations, is that, sooner or later, something’s got to give. To some extent this has already happened in that many trillions of dollars of wealth have disappeared, or been reallocated to cover “bad actions” of various kinds. The situation in Europe is actually much worse than it is here, and if it becomes impossible to maintain solvency of large EU nations such Greece, Italy and Spain, then the effect will, again, be felt in the US and elsewhere.
What I have no way of knowing is how much “re-assignable” wealth is present in the system—and just as importantly, if it will be reassigned to cover “bad acts.” That’ difficult to assess wealth covers a huge range of goods and actions, from the quality of food people eat, to whether they use paper towels or go back to using rags! I’ve never claimed any special insight in those matters, and for good reason; because the data to make those kinds of “forecasts” simply isn’t available.
So, my position is very much like that of someone who warns that “crime doesn’t pay.” It doesn’t—not in the long run, because it is destructive of productivity, and destructive of effective human social interaction. But the BIG question is, what exactly constitutes the “long run?” That’s not a joke, and I am mindful that the Soviet Union ground on for 70 years. That’s an economist’s eternity, and then some. Pepsi Cola made millions betting that Soviet Russia would continue for decades. Do I think Fidelista Cuba is doomed? Absolutely. I also think it is a miserable, oppressive place. But I wouldn’t care to give any odds on how long it will survive.
Finally, if all the “non-contrarians” on this matter are concerned with or about is financial gain, regardless of the system’s characteristics or “meta-qualities,” then I have nothing to say to them and their disappointment in my “judgment” is as understandable as it is mutual.
--Isaac Deutscher