I doubt it would cost very much. Epidemiologists have software they can use to model it. Moreover, an easy way to do controlled experiments would be dorm assignments on college campuses.
At any rate, my unabashedly Bayesian gut feeling is that it’s obviously a good idea to do it. See above for my priors.
To the extent that this kind of thing is hard, I’d put it squarely in the “hard but worth it” bucket, along the lines of JFK’s speech at Rice University. I’m calling for us to stop meekly accepting case surges as inevitable, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to speculate that by leading with mass vaccination, we’ve unwittingly created a kind of “bang bang control system” with similar issues to overworked thermostats—a public health analog of metal fatigue, if you will.
I doubt it would cost very much. Epidemiologists have software they can use to model it. Moreover, an easy way to do controlled experiments would be dorm assignments on college campuses.
At any rate, my unabashedly Bayesian gut feeling is that it’s obviously a good idea to do it. See above for my priors.
To the extent that this kind of thing is hard, I’d put it squarely in the “hard but worth it” bucket, along the lines of JFK’s speech at Rice University. I’m calling for us to stop meekly accepting case surges as inevitable, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to speculate that by leading with mass vaccination, we’ve unwittingly created a kind of “bang bang control system” with similar issues to overworked thermostats—a public health analog of metal fatigue, if you will.