Scoring your predictions: it looks like you got all three “not see” predictions right, as well as #1 and #3 from “will see”, with only #2 from “will see” missing (though you had merely predicted we’d see something “closer to” your “will see” list, so missing one doesn’t necessarily mean you were wrong).
The first half of #1 I got right, but I think the second half was more wrong than right. While this might be fast enough to be useful in a crisis, it looks like the design is focused more on getting useful information out of regions rather than the ‘gross functionality’ target I mentioned there.
I think the big result here was that they came up with a way to do deep insertion of wires designed for biocompatibility and longevity, which is impressive and along a dimension I wasn’t tracking too much in my prediction. In retrospect, I might have updated too much on the article I read beforehand, which gave me the sense that this was closer to ‘a medical startup that got Musk’s money’ than ‘the thing Musk said he was trying to do, which will try to be useful along the way’, which is what the white paper looks more like.
Scoring your predictions: it looks like you got all three “not see” predictions right, as well as #1 and #3 from “will see”, with only #2 from “will see” missing (though you had merely predicted we’d see something “closer to” your “will see” list, so missing one doesn’t necessarily mean you were wrong).
The first half of #1 I got right, but I think the second half was more wrong than right. While this might be fast enough to be useful in a crisis, it looks like the design is focused more on getting useful information out of regions rather than the ‘gross functionality’ target I mentioned there.
I think the big result here was that they came up with a way to do deep insertion of wires designed for biocompatibility and longevity, which is impressive and along a dimension I wasn’t tracking too much in my prediction. In retrospect, I might have updated too much on the article I read beforehand, which gave me the sense that this was closer to ‘a medical startup that got Musk’s money’ than ‘the thing Musk said he was trying to do, which will try to be useful along the way’, which is what the white paper looks more like.