To make sure I understand your point… the “Bayes Factors” I give like 1/ 1 million aren’t meant to be taken literally. Rather they’re to show how easy it is to get a high BF in this case, if you do a very quick analysis that doesn’t account for details. I don’t expect this post, on its own, to convince anyone of the zoonotic origin hypothesis.
Yeah, but I think that it’s more than not taken literally, it’s that the exercise is fundamentally flawed when being used as an argument instead of very narrowly for honest truth-seeking, which is almost never possible in a discussion without unreasonably high levels of trust and confidence in others’ epistemic reliability.
To make sure I understand your point… the “Bayes Factors” I give like 1/ 1 million aren’t meant to be taken literally. Rather they’re to show how easy it is to get a high BF in this case, if you do a very quick analysis that doesn’t account for details. I don’t expect this post, on its own, to convince anyone of the zoonotic origin hypothesis.
Yeah, but I think that it’s more than not taken literally, it’s that the exercise is fundamentally flawed when being used as an argument instead of very narrowly for honest truth-seeking, which is almost never possible in a discussion without unreasonably high levels of trust and confidence in others’ epistemic reliability.