I don’t quite see this logical contradiction that your Twitter poll asks about.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the answers reflect framing effects. But the answers seem logically consistent if we assume that some people believe that severe disempowerment is good.
Oops. I misread which questions you were comparing.
Now that I’ve read the full questions in the actual paper, it looks like some of the difference is due to “within 100 years” versus at any time horizon.
I consider it far-fetched that much of the risk is over 100 years away, but it’s logically possible, and Robin Hanson might endorse a similar response.
I don’t quite see this logical contradiction that your Twitter poll asks about.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the answers reflect framing effects. But the answers seem logically consistent if we assume that some people believe that severe disempowerment is good.
Oops. I misread which questions you were comparing.
Now that I’ve read the full questions in the actual paper, it looks like some of the difference is due to “within 100 years” versus at any time horizon.
I consider it far-fetched that much of the risk is over 100 years away, but it’s logically possible, and Robin Hanson might endorse a similar response.