I can sort of see what you’re getting at here, but to me needing to ask “what question was being asked?” in order to do a correct analysis is really a special case of the need to condition on all information. When we know “the older child in that family is a boy”, we shouldn’t condition on just that fact when we actually know more, such as “I asked a neighbour whether the older child is a boy or girl, and they said ‘a boy’”, or “I encountered a boy in the family and asked if they were the older one, and they said ‘yes’”. Both these more detailed descriptions of what happened imply (assuming truthfulness) that the older child is a boy, but they contain more information than that statement alone, so it is necessary to condition on that information too.
For Technicolor Beauty, the statement (from Beauty’s perspective) “I woke up and saw a blue piece of paper” is not the complete description. She actually knows sometime like “I woke up, felt a bit hungry, with an itch in my toe, opened my eyes, and saw a fly crawling down the wall over a blue piece of paper, which fluttered at bit because the air conditioning was running, and I remembered that the air duct is above that place, though I can’t see it behind the light fixture that I can see there, etc.”. I argue that she should then condition on the fact that somebody has those perceptions and memories, which can be seen as a third-person perspective fact, though in ordinary life (not strange thought experiments involving AIs, or vast cosmological theories) this is equivalent to a first-person perspective fact. So one doesn’t get different answers from different perspectives, and one needn’t somehow justify disagreeing with a friend’s beliefs, despite having identical information.
I see what you mean. I agree that we know more than just “the older child of the family is a boy”. The “more” would be the process of how I come to know it. To me what’s special about the island problem is that when trying to express what I know into a simply statement such as “the older child is a boy” any information about the process is lost. Therefore it left us with an ambiguity about the process thats up to interpretation. This is exactly what happens in the Boy or Girl paradox as well. If there is any lesson then it should be conditioning on a statement such as “someone with all those detailed perception and memory exists” is a rather delicate matter. Is this someone specified first and then all the details about her explored? Or is all these details spelled out first and someone with these details was found to be exist? SSA and SIA would give different answers from a third-person perspective. But from first-person perspective the process is clear. It is the former. That someone is specified based on immediacy to perception, i.e. that someone is this one. And then all the details about me are found out though my experience. Therefore the perspective consistency argument would not change its answer basing on any details observed after waking up.
As for the disagreement, more preciously the “agree to disagree”, between friends while in communication. I’m aware it is a rather peculiar case. SIA and FNC would not result in that which can certainly be used as a argument favouring them. But in my opinion it can be quite simply explained by perspective differences. Of course basing on my experience with paradoxes relating to anthropic reasoning, nothing is simple. So I understand if others find it hard to accept.
What I mean by “someone with those memories exists” is just that there exists a being who has those memories, not that I in particular have those memories. That’s the “non-indexical” part of FNC. Of course, in ordinary life, as ordinarily thought of, there’s no real difference, since no one but me has those memories.
I agree that one could imagine conditioning on the additional piece of “information” that it’s me that has those memories, if one can actually make sense of what that means. But one of the points of my FNC paper is that this additional step is not necessary for any ordinary reasoning task, so to say it’s necessary for something like evaluating cosmological theories is rather speculative. (In contrast, some people seem to think that SSA is just a simple extension of the need to account for sampling bias when reasoning about ordinary situations, which I think is not correct.)
SSA conditions on more “information” than that an observer with your observations exists; specifically, it conditions on the fact that a randomly selected observer has your observations, which automatically implies that an observer with your observations exists. (I put “information” in quotes because this is only information if you accept something like SSA)
I can sort of see what you’re getting at here, but to me needing to ask “what question was being asked?” in order to do a correct analysis is really a special case of the need to condition on all information. When we know “the older child in that family is a boy”, we shouldn’t condition on just that fact when we actually know more, such as “I asked a neighbour whether the older child is a boy or girl, and they said ‘a boy’”, or “I encountered a boy in the family and asked if they were the older one, and they said ‘yes’”. Both these more detailed descriptions of what happened imply (assuming truthfulness) that the older child is a boy, but they contain more information than that statement alone, so it is necessary to condition on that information too.
For Technicolor Beauty, the statement (from Beauty’s perspective) “I woke up and saw a blue piece of paper” is not the complete description. She actually knows sometime like “I woke up, felt a bit hungry, with an itch in my toe, opened my eyes, and saw a fly crawling down the wall over a blue piece of paper, which fluttered at bit because the air conditioning was running, and I remembered that the air duct is above that place, though I can’t see it behind the light fixture that I can see there, etc.”. I argue that she should then condition on the fact that somebody has those perceptions and memories, which can be seen as a third-person perspective fact, though in ordinary life (not strange thought experiments involving AIs, or vast cosmological theories) this is equivalent to a first-person perspective fact. So one doesn’t get different answers from different perspectives, and one needn’t somehow justify disagreeing with a friend’s beliefs, despite having identical information.
I see what you mean. I agree that we know more than just “the older child of the family is a boy”. The “more” would be the process of how I come to know it. To me what’s special about the island problem is that when trying to express what I know into a simply statement such as “the older child is a boy” any information about the process is lost. Therefore it left us with an ambiguity about the process thats up to interpretation. This is exactly what happens in the Boy or Girl paradox as well. If there is any lesson then it should be conditioning on a statement such as “someone with all those detailed perception and memory exists” is a rather delicate matter. Is this someone specified first and then all the details about her explored? Or is all these details spelled out first and someone with these details was found to be exist? SSA and SIA would give different answers from a third-person perspective. But from first-person perspective the process is clear. It is the former. That someone is specified based on immediacy to perception, i.e. that someone is this one. And then all the details about me are found out though my experience. Therefore the perspective consistency argument would not change its answer basing on any details observed after waking up.
As for the disagreement, more preciously the “agree to disagree”, between friends while in communication. I’m aware it is a rather peculiar case. SIA and FNC would not result in that which can certainly be used as a argument favouring them. But in my opinion it can be quite simply explained by perspective differences. Of course basing on my experience with paradoxes relating to anthropic reasoning, nothing is simple. So I understand if others find it hard to accept.
What I mean by “someone with those memories exists” is just that there exists a being who has those memories, not that I in particular have those memories. That’s the “non-indexical” part of FNC. Of course, in ordinary life, as ordinarily thought of, there’s no real difference, since no one but me has those memories.
I agree that one could imagine conditioning on the additional piece of “information” that it’s me that has those memories, if one can actually make sense of what that means. But one of the points of my FNC paper is that this additional step is not necessary for any ordinary reasoning task, so to say it’s necessary for something like evaluating cosmological theories is rather speculative. (In contrast, some people seem to think that SSA is just a simple extension of the need to account for sampling bias when reasoning about ordinary situations, which I think is not correct.)
SSA conditions on more “information” than that an observer with your observations exists; specifically, it conditions on the fact that a randomly selected observer has your observations, which automatically implies that an observer with your observations exists. (I put “information” in quotes because this is only information if you accept something like SSA)