Thanks, that’s fair! Such a threshold exists if and only if you assume— non-zero AI research (which is the scenario we’re interested in here I guess), - technological progress correlates with AI progress (which as you say is not guaranteed but that still seems very likely to me), - maybe a few other crucial things I implicitly assume without realizing.
Thanks, that’s fair! Such a threshold exists if and only if you assume—
non-zero AI research (which is the scenario we’re interested in here I guess),
- technological progress correlates with AI progress (which as you say is not guaranteed but that still seems very likely to me),
- maybe a few other crucial things I implicitly assume without realizing.