Discounting. There is no law of nature that can force me to care about preventing human extinction years from now, more than eating a tasty sandwich tomorrow. There is also no law that can force me to care about human extinction much more that about my own death.
There are, of course, more technical disagreements to be had. Reasonable people could question how bad unaligned AI will be or how much progress is possible in this research. But unlike those questions, the reasons of discounting are not debatable.
“Not debatable” seems a little strong. For example, one might suspect both that some rational humans disprefer persisting, and also that most who think this would change their minds upon further reflection.
While it’s true that preferences are not immutable, the things that change them are not usually debate. Sure, some people can be made to believe that their preferences are inconsistent, but then they will only make the smallest correction needed to fix the problem. Also, sometimes debate will make someone claim to have changed their preferences, just to that they can avoid social pressures (e.g. “how dare you not care about starving children!”), but this may not reflect in their actions.
Regardless, my claim is that many (or most) people discount a lot, and that this would be stable under reflection. Otherwise we’d see more charity, more investment and more work on e.g. climate change.
Discounting. There is no law of nature that can force me to care about preventing human extinction years from now, more than eating a tasty sandwich tomorrow. There is also no law that can force me to care about human extinction much more that about my own death.
There are, of course, more technical disagreements to be had. Reasonable people could question how bad unaligned AI will be or how much progress is possible in this research. But unlike those questions, the reasons of discounting are not debatable.
“Not debatable” seems a little strong. For example, one might suspect both that some rational humans disprefer persisting, and also that most who think this would change their minds upon further reflection.
While it’s true that preferences are not immutable, the things that change them are not usually debate. Sure, some people can be made to believe that their preferences are inconsistent, but then they will only make the smallest correction needed to fix the problem. Also, sometimes debate will make someone claim to have changed their preferences, just to that they can avoid social pressures (e.g. “how dare you not care about starving children!”), but this may not reflect in their actions.
Regardless, my claim is that many (or most) people discount a lot, and that this would be stable under reflection. Otherwise we’d see more charity, more investment and more work on e.g. climate change.