The glib answer to how to avoid falling victim to the Dark Arts is to just be right, and not let counterarguments change your mind. Occlumency, if you like.
Well, yes, but I’m unsure if this is too helpful. Part of the intention behind my post was to distill what I viewed as potentially useful advice. Do you have any? If not, that’s fine, but I’m unsure if it’s too valuable for the readership.
One problem is the bullshit asymmetry principle, which you describe but don’t call by name: rebutting narratives through analyses of individual claims is infeasibly expensive. But far worse is answering the wrong question, letting the enemy choose the battlefield. Sticking with the war in Ukraine for an example, it’d be like answering the question of why Russia would blow up its own pipeline (Is Putin stupid? Is it like Cortés burning his ships? Is it the Wagner Group trying to undermine Putin?) instead of saying, “Wtf? No, it’s obviously the US.”
I think I can take issue with this logic. Ukraine can benefit from German economic ties being severed from Russia. Russia can benefit with Germany hydrocarbons being depleted further (part of Russian strategy was restriction of gas exports to drive up energy prices), and of course the US benefits from there being less Russian trade flows. Analysis of the relevant actors would likely lead to convergence on a more informed judgement.
By your logic, wouldn’t I find myself drawing outlandish conclusions? Why would the Ukraine invasion ever happen? Why would Russia compromise it’s geopolitical position and encourage Finland to join the alliance, European remilitarization, and increased reliance on America for security partnerships? Is Putin stupid? Is it like Cortes burning his ships? Is it the Wagner Group trying to undermine Putin? Wtf, no!! It’s obviously the US. The white house actively encouraged the invasion of Ukraine! Just look at what their German minions did with Ostpolitik!
I could go on, but I don’t think I need to. Saying that ‘X is obviously true’ in absence of compelling evidence while refusing to analyze the requisite evidence seems like weak intellectual work at best. It tends to result in conspiracy theories. Of course I can’t have complete confidence in my story, but I can claim to have done the proper analytical work and arrived at the most reasonable conclusion.
To clarify my point about the Snake Island massacre: yeah, I think the audio was legit too. No, I believe the Ukraine government knew they were alive (or at least had good reason to think so), and pretended otherwise for propaganda reasons. Can I prove this? No, I don’t in fact have access to high-level military intelligence. This is the trap I’m warning against! Getting bogged down trying to ascertain exactly what the Ukrainian military knew and when they knew it is missing the point, which is whether or not they’re incentivized to deceive you, and so whether you should trust anything they say, one way or the other.
Isn’t this just a false dichotomy? Either we can trust them or we cannot. I find this misleading. Suppose a salesman is trying to sell me a particular canned food product. He may explain that it’s nutritious, affordable, and has significant dietary effects that might make me popular with the ladies. (don’t you want lean muscles?) I know he is a motivated reasoner, but that’s not to say I can’t glean useful information or distinguish between ‘likely true’ and ‘likely false’ statements. I can reason that the salesman is being honest about the price (because he’s making the sale). Regardless of whether this price is worth it. I can reason that the nutritional values listed on the can are probably accurate (as otherwise the FDA would come down on his head). I can conclude that there are likely some dietary effects, but their extent would depend on research I would want to do myself, rather than taking his word for it. There are probably legitimately good things about the product, regardless of the salesman’s presence.
In much the same way, we can trust some things the Ukranian government says, and their reports usually provide useful information as to what’s happening in the war, even though we would be idiots to trust them completely. They are a ‘noisy’ version of reality we need to filter through. Not reality. That doesn’t mean they aren’t useful as an information source, however, or that we should automatically assume them to be liars.
The same goes for your ad hoc determinations of which states are “legitimate,” based on considerations of “international law,” your personal moral views regarding “democracy,” and expedients of maintaining US hegemony. You’re answering the wrong question. Happily, in this case, I’ve figured out the correct answer: there is no such thing as a morally legitimate state.
So… Russia has no right to exist, Ukraine has no right to exist, the US has no right to exist, all of this is pointless? I’m not too sure what you’re implying here, but I’m unsure if I like the direction of this conversation either. I think I’ll stop here, I don’t imagine further discourse will be helpful.
Well, yes, but I’m unsure if this is too helpful. Part of the intention behind my post was to distill what I viewed as potentially useful advice. Do you have any? If not, that’s fine, but I’m unsure if it’s too valuable for the readership.
I think I can take issue with this logic. Ukraine can benefit from German economic ties being severed from Russia. Russia can benefit with Germany hydrocarbons being depleted further (part of Russian strategy was restriction of gas exports to drive up energy prices), and of course the US benefits from there being less Russian trade flows. Analysis of the relevant actors would likely lead to convergence on a more informed judgement.
By your logic, wouldn’t I find myself drawing outlandish conclusions? Why would the Ukraine invasion ever happen? Why would Russia compromise it’s geopolitical position and encourage Finland to join the alliance, European remilitarization, and increased reliance on America for security partnerships? Is Putin stupid? Is it like Cortes burning his ships? Is it the Wagner Group trying to undermine Putin? Wtf, no!! It’s obviously the US. The white house actively encouraged the invasion of Ukraine! Just look at what their German minions did with Ostpolitik!
I could go on, but I don’t think I need to. Saying that ‘X is obviously true’ in absence of compelling evidence while refusing to analyze the requisite evidence seems like weak intellectual work at best. It tends to result in conspiracy theories. Of course I can’t have complete confidence in my story, but I can claim to have done the proper analytical work and arrived at the most reasonable conclusion.
Isn’t this just a false dichotomy? Either we can trust them or we cannot. I find this misleading. Suppose a salesman is trying to sell me a particular canned food product. He may explain that it’s nutritious, affordable, and has significant dietary effects that might make me popular with the ladies. (don’t you want lean muscles?) I know he is a motivated reasoner, but that’s not to say I can’t glean useful information or distinguish between ‘likely true’ and ‘likely false’ statements. I can reason that the salesman is being honest about the price (because he’s making the sale). Regardless of whether this price is worth it. I can reason that the nutritional values listed on the can are probably accurate (as otherwise the FDA would come down on his head). I can conclude that there are likely some dietary effects, but their extent would depend on research I would want to do myself, rather than taking his word for it. There are probably legitimately good things about the product, regardless of the salesman’s presence.
In much the same way, we can trust some things the Ukranian government says, and their reports usually provide useful information as to what’s happening in the war, even though we would be idiots to trust them completely. They are a ‘noisy’ version of reality we need to filter through. Not reality. That doesn’t mean they aren’t useful as an information source, however, or that we should automatically assume them to be liars.
So… Russia has no right to exist, Ukraine has no right to exist, the US has no right to exist, all of this is pointless? I’m not too sure what you’re implying here, but I’m unsure if I like the direction of this conversation either. I think I’ll stop here, I don’t imagine further discourse will be helpful.