What basis is there to assume that the distribution of these variables is log uniform? Why, in the toy example, limit the variables to the interval [0,0.2]? Why not [0,1]?
These choices drive the result.
The problem is, for many of the probabilities, we don’t even know enough about them to say what distribution they might take. You can’t infer a meaningful distribution over variables where your sample size is 1 or 0
The [0, 0.2] was a toy example. They take a fair bit of care to evaluate the distribution of the real factors in the Drake formula, which is what most of the paper is about.
What basis is there to assume that the distribution of these variables is log uniform? Why, in the toy example, limit the variables to the interval [0,0.2]? Why not [0,1]?
These choices drive the result.
The problem is, for many of the probabilities, we don’t even know enough about them to say what distribution they might take. You can’t infer a meaningful distribution over variables where your sample size is 1 or 0
The [0, 0.2] was a toy example. They take a fair bit of care to evaluate the distribution of the real factors in the Drake formula, which is what most of the paper is about.