I think one reason that this error occurs is that there’s a mistaken assumption that the available literature captures all institutional knowledge on a topic, so if one simply spends enough time reading the literature, they’ll have all requisite knowledge needed for policy recommendations. I realize that this statement could apply equally to your own claims here, but in my experience I see it happen most often when someone reads a handful of the most recently released research papers and from just that small sample of work tries to draw conclusions applicable that are broadly applicable to the entire field.
Engineering claims are particularly suspect because institutional knowledge (often in the form of proprietary or confidential information held by companies and their employees) is where the difference between what is theoretically efficient and what is practically more efficient is found. It doesn’t even need to be protected information though—it can also just be that due to manufacturing reasons, or marketing reasons, or some type of incredibly aggravating constraint like “two hoses require a larger box and the larger box pushes you into a shipping size with much higher per-volume / mass costs so the overall cost of the product needs to be non-linearly higher than what you’d expect would be needed for a single hose unit, and that final per-unit cost is outside of what people would like to pay for an AC unit, unless you then also make drastic improvements to the motor efficiency, thermal efficiency, and reduce the sound level, at which point the price is now even higher than before, but you have more competitive reasons to justify it which will be accepted by a large enough % of the market to make up for the increased costs elsewhere, except the remaining % of the market can’t afford that higher per-unit cost at all, so we’re back to still making and selling a one-hose unit for them”.
Concrete example while we’re on the AC unit debate—there’s a very simple way to increase efficiency of portable AC units, and it’s to wrap the hot exhaust hose with insulating duct wrap so that less of the heat on that very hot hose radiates directly back into the room you’re trying to cool. Why do companies not sell their units with that wrap? Probably for one of any of the following reasons—A.) takes up a lot of space, B.) requires a time investment to apply to the unit which would dissuade buyers who think they can’t handle that complexity, C.) would cost more money to sell and no longer be profitable at the market’s price point, D.) has to be applied once the AC unit is in place, and generally is thick enough that the unit is no longer “portable” which during market testing was viewed as a negative by a large % of surveyed people, or E.) some other equally trivial sounding reason that nonetheless means it’s more cost effective for companies to NOT sell insulating duct wrap in the same box as the portable AC unit.
I think one reason that this error occurs is that there’s a mistaken assumption that the available literature captures all institutional knowledge on a topic, so if one simply spends enough time reading the literature, they’ll have all requisite knowledge needed for policy recommendations. I realize that this statement could apply equally to your own claims here, but in my experience I see it happen most often when someone reads a handful of the most recently released research papers and from just that small sample of work tries to draw conclusions applicable that are broadly applicable to the entire field.
Engineering claims are particularly suspect because institutional knowledge (often in the form of proprietary or confidential information held by companies and their employees) is where the difference between what is theoretically efficient and what is practically more efficient is found. It doesn’t even need to be protected information though—it can also just be that due to manufacturing reasons, or marketing reasons, or some type of incredibly aggravating constraint like “two hoses require a larger box and the larger box pushes you into a shipping size with much higher per-volume / mass costs so the overall cost of the product needs to be non-linearly higher than what you’d expect would be needed for a single hose unit, and that final per-unit cost is outside of what people would like to pay for an AC unit, unless you then also make drastic improvements to the motor efficiency, thermal efficiency, and reduce the sound level, at which point the price is now even higher than before, but you have more competitive reasons to justify it which will be accepted by a large enough % of the market to make up for the increased costs elsewhere, except the remaining % of the market can’t afford that higher per-unit cost at all, so we’re back to still making and selling a one-hose unit for them”.
Concrete example while we’re on the AC unit debate—there’s a very simple way to increase efficiency of portable AC units, and it’s to wrap the hot exhaust hose with insulating duct wrap so that less of the heat on that very hot hose radiates directly back into the room you’re trying to cool. Why do companies not sell their units with that wrap? Probably for one of any of the following reasons—A.) takes up a lot of space, B.) requires a time investment to apply to the unit which would dissuade buyers who think they can’t handle that complexity, C.) would cost more money to sell and no longer be profitable at the market’s price point, D.) has to be applied once the AC unit is in place, and generally is thick enough that the unit is no longer “portable” which during market testing was viewed as a negative by a large % of surveyed people, or E.) some other equally trivial sounding reason that nonetheless means it’s more cost effective for companies to NOT sell insulating duct wrap in the same box as the portable AC unit.
Example of an AC company that does sell an insulating wrap as an optional add-on: https://www.amazon.com/DeLonghi-DLSA003-Conditioner-Insulated-Universal/dp/B07X85CTPX