These are good points. I agree with you that we can view songs within a “song-space”, but I think that specific points (songs) of a certain value or effect on humans are actually very sparse in the song-space. I can strum a few random chords, record it, and call it a song, but that is very different from the Rolling Stones’ “Satisfaction”. If you take all the factors that comprise a song, it is only very specific combinations that turn out to be songs that have a strong effect on people. So the song-space would be large, but the specific points would be limited and sparse.
I think you bring up a good problem that it is hard to make judgments based on observations currently in music—it’s hard to say for sure while new music is still being created. I do think that all music is closer than we think to completion, with the current popular genres of rap, pop, electronic etc being the final genres to be substantially completed. I predict that in the next 5-10 years, it will become more evident that music as a whole has reached a point where all of the most significant songs are in the past. Only time will tell to some extent. Even then I think it won’t be clear to most people until we have experienced decades of lack of musical progress.
Right, that’s a good point you’re making about most points in song-space being worthless, and it maybe even shows that the multidimensional-space way of looking at things isn’t really appropriate in this situation. Since I can’t think of anything better, though, we might as well just keep talking about a “sparsely populated” space.
I think that distinction comes to core of the problem here: we’re talking about a hugely vast space, where a hugely vast proportion of points in it are inconsequential. There’s a battle going on between those intuitions of “hugeness;” for me, the space wins out, for you, the sparseness. It’s probably not possible to reconcile these intuitions easily, as they’re not immediately based on anything concrete. As unfortunate as the phrase is, I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree (unless I’m totally wrong here, which is a possibility). For what it’s worth, I’m less confident now in my opinion that music genres like “classical” and jazz aren’t close to being filled up.
You’re making a bit of a different point in this comment, though, which I think it’s important to clarify. It seems to me to be far more likely that a specific genre that has existed for decades or centuries is filling up, than that music as a whole is anywhere close to completion. The two are very different claims.
You mention rap and electronica as being some of the “final genres” to be substantially completed, but think of where they came from, and why they are the most recent genres. Rap (or hip-hop, not really sure which is the more accurate term for what I’m talking about) came out of a period of profound social change, while electronica is only possible due to technological advances in the last 30 or so years. I don’t think anyone would have been able to predict Skrillex, or anything like it, in the ’60s or maybe even the ’70s (though I’m unconfident about exactly when because my history is lacking).
Doesn’t this suggest that it’s most prudent to “expect the unexpected” when it comes to musical progress? I only gave a couple of examples, but I’m sure that more exist; generally, it seems like the emergence of new genres of music is a much less predictable process than the creation of songs within a given genre. You’d need quite convincing evidence to suggest that this time is different (barring some kind of civilizational collapse or “end of history”-style cultural equilibrium, of course).
Even though we are of slightly different opinions, I’m glad we are on the same page of what I was trying to discuss and get thoughts on—this has been good. You’re right that the sparseness I’m proposing is hard to judge and you can’t break down the argument further. My perception comes from my experience in attempting songwriting in the genre of rock where I felt like after spending many hours songwriting that I could understand and perceive the boundaries of the genre/niche at an intuitive level from much trial-and-error—which isn’t an argument to convince you or someone else (of course), but just to explain to you why it seems self-evident to me that the songs are very sparse in the space. That in addition to observing the factors I had mentioned before (limited period of best work for each band, declining output of distinct new styles/bands, etc).
Yes, you are right that there is a big difference between addressing older genres like classical and jazz vs current genres, but applying the same concept has led me to believe that the remaining genres will soon be completed as well—which I will do my best to explain, bear with me.
With rock music, much of my experience comes from time spent songwriting and exploring the niche, but also from observing the progression of rock music. One of the simplest factors to see in progression of the opening up of new styles in rock was changes / advances in production styles. So in the 50s, songs by rock acts like Elvis, Buddy Holly, etc were all recorded in Mono sound. That proceeded into the Beatles early work (eg “I Wanna Hold Your Hand”). Mono sound gave songs a distinct sound different than stereo sound, but was also more limited in general. Phil Spector’s Wall of Sound technique did allow complexity in Mono (as best used by the Beach Boys in Pet Sounds) but it did not have as much potential as stereo in general. The Beatles then started recording in stereo sound. Partially because of the new larger stereo space, and partially just in tandem development, they (and others) opened up the door for much more varied sounds and instrumentation and styles. Led Zeppelin and early metal figured out how to record heavier sounding drums and fuller distorted guitars. The 80s brought reverb (big room sound) and synthesizers and different guitar sounds into rock (Van Halen etc). Nirvana’s Nevermind’s production helped usher in even heavier drums and bigger distorted guitar alternative rock sound that persisted into grunge and post-grunge sounds. In the 2000s, indie rock like Animal Collective, TV on the Radio, etc explored additional sonic textures, combining distorted guitar with heavy reverb and big spaces (along with many bands who pulled from sonic and production styles of previous decades within an indie rock sound). But from my judgment, 2009 was the last peak of new distinct indie rock bands and sounds (it was starting to decline after that).
In a way, the simplest way to view running out of rock music was to see that there was no further places to go with production techniques or the sonic environment or instrumentation of a song (in a distinct way). At the same time, Indie rock in the 2000s was more democratized than rock ever was before because technology and the internet allowed anyone to write and record music. But I think that democratization allows completion to happen at a faster rate.
In a similar way, rap appears to have maxed out production advances and is starting to run out of distinct sonic textures. Current rap, electronic, and pop music use similar modern production elements that are different than what was 10 years ago or in the 90s or in the 80s. It takes examination of production and the progress up until now, but it seems evident to me that there isn’t going to be another large production breakthrough. That in tandem with the fact that current rap, electronic, and pop (or any music) is more democratized as ever, with millions of people trying to create the next great style of song, and it seems likely that these genres will be substantially completed in the next 5-10 years as well (somewhat using rock completion as a metric).
I agree that it is difficult to explain or prove, because most of the evidence that I’m explaining is really a complex picture of what I see as self-evident but can’t be broken down further into a simpler argument. We probably will have to agree to disagree, but I’m glad you brought it down to this level of detail. Thanks!
These are good points. I agree with you that we can view songs within a “song-space”, but I think that specific points (songs) of a certain value or effect on humans are actually very sparse in the song-space. I can strum a few random chords, record it, and call it a song, but that is very different from the Rolling Stones’ “Satisfaction”. If you take all the factors that comprise a song, it is only very specific combinations that turn out to be songs that have a strong effect on people. So the song-space would be large, but the specific points would be limited and sparse.
I think you bring up a good problem that it is hard to make judgments based on observations currently in music—it’s hard to say for sure while new music is still being created. I do think that all music is closer than we think to completion, with the current popular genres of rap, pop, electronic etc being the final genres to be substantially completed. I predict that in the next 5-10 years, it will become more evident that music as a whole has reached a point where all of the most significant songs are in the past. Only time will tell to some extent. Even then I think it won’t be clear to most people until we have experienced decades of lack of musical progress.
Thanks for your thoughts by the way.
Right, that’s a good point you’re making about most points in song-space being worthless, and it maybe even shows that the multidimensional-space way of looking at things isn’t really appropriate in this situation. Since I can’t think of anything better, though, we might as well just keep talking about a “sparsely populated” space.
I think that distinction comes to core of the problem here: we’re talking about a hugely vast space, where a hugely vast proportion of points in it are inconsequential. There’s a battle going on between those intuitions of “hugeness;” for me, the space wins out, for you, the sparseness. It’s probably not possible to reconcile these intuitions easily, as they’re not immediately based on anything concrete. As unfortunate as the phrase is, I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree (unless I’m totally wrong here, which is a possibility). For what it’s worth, I’m less confident now in my opinion that music genres like “classical” and jazz aren’t close to being filled up.
You’re making a bit of a different point in this comment, though, which I think it’s important to clarify. It seems to me to be far more likely that a specific genre that has existed for decades or centuries is filling up, than that music as a whole is anywhere close to completion. The two are very different claims.
You mention rap and electronica as being some of the “final genres” to be substantially completed, but think of where they came from, and why they are the most recent genres. Rap (or hip-hop, not really sure which is the more accurate term for what I’m talking about) came out of a period of profound social change, while electronica is only possible due to technological advances in the last 30 or so years. I don’t think anyone would have been able to predict Skrillex, or anything like it, in the ’60s or maybe even the ’70s (though I’m unconfident about exactly when because my history is lacking).
Doesn’t this suggest that it’s most prudent to “expect the unexpected” when it comes to musical progress? I only gave a couple of examples, but I’m sure that more exist; generally, it seems like the emergence of new genres of music is a much less predictable process than the creation of songs within a given genre. You’d need quite convincing evidence to suggest that this time is different (barring some kind of civilizational collapse or “end of history”-style cultural equilibrium, of course).
Even though we are of slightly different opinions, I’m glad we are on the same page of what I was trying to discuss and get thoughts on—this has been good. You’re right that the sparseness I’m proposing is hard to judge and you can’t break down the argument further. My perception comes from my experience in attempting songwriting in the genre of rock where I felt like after spending many hours songwriting that I could understand and perceive the boundaries of the genre/niche at an intuitive level from much trial-and-error—which isn’t an argument to convince you or someone else (of course), but just to explain to you why it seems self-evident to me that the songs are very sparse in the space. That in addition to observing the factors I had mentioned before (limited period of best work for each band, declining output of distinct new styles/bands, etc).
Yes, you are right that there is a big difference between addressing older genres like classical and jazz vs current genres, but applying the same concept has led me to believe that the remaining genres will soon be completed as well—which I will do my best to explain, bear with me.
With rock music, much of my experience comes from time spent songwriting and exploring the niche, but also from observing the progression of rock music. One of the simplest factors to see in progression of the opening up of new styles in rock was changes / advances in production styles. So in the 50s, songs by rock acts like Elvis, Buddy Holly, etc were all recorded in Mono sound. That proceeded into the Beatles early work (eg “I Wanna Hold Your Hand”). Mono sound gave songs a distinct sound different than stereo sound, but was also more limited in general. Phil Spector’s Wall of Sound technique did allow complexity in Mono (as best used by the Beach Boys in Pet Sounds) but it did not have as much potential as stereo in general. The Beatles then started recording in stereo sound. Partially because of the new larger stereo space, and partially just in tandem development, they (and others) opened up the door for much more varied sounds and instrumentation and styles. Led Zeppelin and early metal figured out how to record heavier sounding drums and fuller distorted guitars. The 80s brought reverb (big room sound) and synthesizers and different guitar sounds into rock (Van Halen etc). Nirvana’s Nevermind’s production helped usher in even heavier drums and bigger distorted guitar alternative rock sound that persisted into grunge and post-grunge sounds. In the 2000s, indie rock like Animal Collective, TV on the Radio, etc explored additional sonic textures, combining distorted guitar with heavy reverb and big spaces (along with many bands who pulled from sonic and production styles of previous decades within an indie rock sound). But from my judgment, 2009 was the last peak of new distinct indie rock bands and sounds (it was starting to decline after that).
In a way, the simplest way to view running out of rock music was to see that there was no further places to go with production techniques or the sonic environment or instrumentation of a song (in a distinct way). At the same time, Indie rock in the 2000s was more democratized than rock ever was before because technology and the internet allowed anyone to write and record music. But I think that democratization allows completion to happen at a faster rate.
In a similar way, rap appears to have maxed out production advances and is starting to run out of distinct sonic textures. Current rap, electronic, and pop music use similar modern production elements that are different than what was 10 years ago or in the 90s or in the 80s. It takes examination of production and the progress up until now, but it seems evident to me that there isn’t going to be another large production breakthrough. That in tandem with the fact that current rap, electronic, and pop (or any music) is more democratized as ever, with millions of people trying to create the next great style of song, and it seems likely that these genres will be substantially completed in the next 5-10 years as well (somewhat using rock completion as a metric).
I agree that it is difficult to explain or prove, because most of the evidence that I’m explaining is really a complex picture of what I see as self-evident but can’t be broken down further into a simpler argument. We probably will have to agree to disagree, but I’m glad you brought it down to this level of detail. Thanks!