The Riemann argument seems to differ from the Great Filter argument in this way: the Riemann argument depends only on the sheer number of observers, i.e. the only thing you’re taking into account is the fact that you exist. Whereas in the great filter argument you’re updating based on what kind of observer you are, i.e. you’re intelligent but not a space-travelling, uploaded posthuman.
The first kind of argument doesn’t work because somebody exists either way: if the RH or whatever is false then you are one of a small number, if it’s true than you are one of a large number, you are in a typical position either way, and the other situation simply isn’t possible. But the second kind of argument seems to hold more merit: if the great filter is behind then you are part of the extreme minority of normal humans, but if the great filter is ahead then you are rather typical of intelligent lifeforms. This might count as evidence, and it seems to be the same kind of evidence which suggests that a great filter even exists in the first place: if it doesn’t then we are very exceptional not only in being the very first humans but the very first intelligent life as well.
The Riemann argument seems to differ from the Great Filter argument in this way: the Riemann argument depends only on the sheer number of observers, i.e. the only thing you’re taking into account is the fact that you exist. Whereas in the great filter argument you’re updating based on what kind of observer you are, i.e. you’re intelligent but not a space-travelling, uploaded posthuman.
The first kind of argument doesn’t work because somebody exists either way: if the RH or whatever is false then you are one of a small number, if it’s true than you are one of a large number, you are in a typical position either way, and the other situation simply isn’t possible. But the second kind of argument seems to hold more merit: if the great filter is behind then you are part of the extreme minority of normal humans, but if the great filter is ahead then you are rather typical of intelligent lifeforms. This might count as evidence, and it seems to be the same kind of evidence which suggests that a great filter even exists in the first place: if it doesn’t then we are very exceptional not only in being the very first humans but the very first intelligent life as well.