Depends what they do with it. If they use it to do the natural and obvious capabilities research, like they currently are (mixed with a little hodge podge alignment to keep it roughly on track), I think we just basically for sure die. If they pivot hard to solving alignment in a very different paradigm and.. no, this hypothetical doesn’t imply the AI can discover or switch to other paradigms.
Depends what they do with it. If they use it to do the natural and obvious capabilities research, like they currently are (mixed with a little hodge podge alignment to keep it roughly on track), I think we just basically for sure die. If they pivot hard to solving alignment in a very different paradigm and.. no, this hypothetical doesn’t imply the AI can discover or switch to other paradigms.
I think doom is almost certain in this scenario.
If we could trust OpenAI to handle this scenario responsibly, our odds would definitely seem better to me.