Could you please expand on your statement that “p(cults|aliens) isn’t less than p(cults|~aliens)” even if greater evidence for aliens were to emerge.
My intuition is that the clearer the evidence for something, the more agreement there will be on the pertinent details. While an individual may be more likely to belong to an alien cult if aliens are present, won’t the number and divergence of cults change depending on the strength of evidence?
This strikes me as parallel to one of your earlier posts, where I think you argued that a multiplicity of weak arguments offers no evidence as the truth of an new argument reaching the same conclusion. Intuitively, I disagree with this. I still think the landscape of arguments currently in use must have some correlation to the truth of a new argument that ‘happens’ to come to the same conclusion. Could you talk more about this someday?
Eliezer ---
Could you please expand on your statement that “p(cults|aliens) isn’t less than p(cults|~aliens)” even if greater evidence for aliens were to emerge.
My intuition is that the clearer the evidence for something, the more agreement there will be on the pertinent details. While an individual may be more likely to belong to an alien cult if aliens are present, won’t the number and divergence of cults change depending on the strength of evidence?
This strikes me as parallel to one of your earlier posts, where I think you argued that a multiplicity of weak arguments offers no evidence as the truth of an new argument reaching the same conclusion. Intuitively, I disagree with this. I still think the landscape of arguments currently in use must have some correlation to the truth of a new argument that ‘happens’ to come to the same conclusion. Could you talk more about this someday?
Thanks!