Without investigating these empirical details, it is unclear whether a particular qualitatively identified force for goal-directedness will cause disaster within a particular time.
A sufficient criteria for a desire to cause catastrophe (distinct from having the means to cause catastrophe) is if the AI is sufficiently goal-directed to be influenced by Stephen Omohundro’s “Basic AI Drives”.
A sufficient criteria for a desire to cause catastrophe (distinct from having the means to cause catastrophe) is if the AI is sufficiently goal-directed to be influenced by Stephen Omohundro’s “Basic AI Drives”.