I can see arguments as to why some people would feel cheated at 20 thousand. I wouldn’t agree. People have gotten too used to fake wars, and are too willing to call just about anything total warfare.
I don’t think the modern warfare thing is enough to change anything. World War two was pretty deadly. Vietnam had millions of deaths.
I should be clear I was thinking all deaths caused by the war, on both sides, civilian and military. The question is how hard the Ukrainians will fight, not how effectively. My general perception is that Iraq is not generally considered to have fought hard for Saddam? I even based my 20,000 figure partially on Saddam.
In any case, the specific definition isn’t that important. I propose that the casualties will be lower than the other side thinks, for reasons of their model being wrong in a way that becomes obvious when looking back on data that does not yet exist.
I can see arguments as to why some people would feel cheated at 20 thousand. I wouldn’t agree. People have gotten too used to fake wars, and are too willing to call just about anything total warfare.
I don’t think the modern warfare thing is enough to change anything. World War two was pretty deadly. Vietnam had millions of deaths.
I should be clear I was thinking all deaths caused by the war, on both sides, civilian and military. The question is how hard the Ukrainians will fight, not how effectively. My general perception is that Iraq is not generally considered to have fought hard for Saddam? I even based my 20,000 figure partially on Saddam.
In any case, the specific definition isn’t that important. I propose that the casualties will be lower than the other side thinks, for reasons of their model being wrong in a way that becomes obvious when looking back on data that does not yet exist.