Think it misses the point a bit to say that the EU and UK don’t care enough to deploy their own troops in combat roles against Russia. Whether they care enough to do so isn’t relevant; Ukraine isn’t part of NATO, and Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons if NATO troops support the Ukrainian army. So deployment of NATO troops was never on the cards. General assumption seems to be that Ukraine will lose the war relatively quickly.
Sanctions will only make a difference if they are significant enough to harm EU/UK/US as well as Russia. Not sure anyone knows how extensive they will be. A lot depends on German public opinion, I think, given that Germany’s close economic links with Russia would mean that Germany would bear a lot of the pain, and that it has previously been more pro-Russian than any other large country. I know nothing about German public opinion, though the website of Bild, Europe’s highest circulation newspaper, is interesting this morning.
If sanctions are too weak to make a difference, Putin will have won. He has said that he will keep on trying to recreate the Russian empire, which now includes several NATO states. Listening to what he has said he will do has been a pretty good guide to his actions in the past, so the assumption should be that he will continue to try to do what he has said he will try to do. Clear risk of nuclear war if Putin invades a NATO state.
If sanctions are meaningful, they’ll tank the Russian economy, but difficult to see how Putin can back down, or be removed from power. And he has control of a lot of nukes.
Either way, we are significantly (weasel word) closer to nuclear war than we were yesterday. As you say, this is the sort of news that matters.
Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons if NATO troops support the Ukrainian army
How should threats like that be evaluated, given that, (I’m guessing that nuking NATO troops would result in nuclear retaliation?) it would be… hard for Russia to benefit, causally, from initiating an exchange, and given that Putin lies quite frequently, and given that there aren’t really any limits to what a nuclear state can get you to go along with if you just take them at their word whenever they threaten this sort of suicidal act; you have to draw a line somewhere, there has to be a limit, where you’re willing to disbelieve. What’s the limit?
I’m having a lot of difficulty seeing nukes as being are applicable or relevant to war, at least in wars between nuclear states, probably even in a war limited to Russia and Ukraine. What would Russia gain from nuking Ukraine? They damage their prize beyond any plausible savings this would impute for their infantry. So, how can this claim that they’d do it be substantiated?
Last I heard (the information could be outdated), the US has fewer nukes than Russia. This was a choice: There was no military advantage to having more. There is a sense in which the credible signalling of will and strength, could no further be waged, that frontier was saturated, the game of war had to leave it.
He did not threaten to nuke Ukraine. He threated to use nukes against NATO countries if they get directly involved in that conflict. Not a direct quote, but a summary would be “We know we can’t win war against NATO, but we still have nuclear weapons—there will be no winners”.
Responding to say that as of now, public opinion in Germany seems pretty certain that Russia is in the wrong.
The reliable news stations mostly agree that Putin’s official reasons for invading are weak at best, but also that this is—as harsh as it sounds—not a pressing enough issue to seriously consider going to war over. Still, I note several things:
Gas is barely talked about at all on the news. I presume that this is because the government is trying to divert attention from the fact that if Russia restricts it, that’d be a catastrophe.
Some of the less trustworthy media (including the BILD, which is quite infamous for being loud, emotional, and anti-everything-the-government-does) have been virtue-signaling about how Germany needs to “take action” against Russia, ideally via the (actually in-very-poor-condition) military, and how that would be worth any economical consequences. Those people don’t know a lot about economics or politics or wars, but they’re loud and it’s worrying.
Public opinion has been moderately anti-russian for some years. Favorable enough to keep doing business with Russia, but bad enough to be disgruntled about it.
Most people are apparently not (yet) aware how big of a deal this is, and much less of the consequences this war will (or might) have on Germany. This worries me a lot.
It might be relevant though that my social bubble involves mostly young, educated middle-class people, and also that I live in the northwest. I have no idea how things are in less privileged groups, or other regions.
Generally, I believe that the biggest parts of the public are still in shock.
I myself am getting increasingly worried about the NATO deciding to directly involve itself in the conflict, both because I feel Germany would be hit HARD economically and on daily-life-basis (especially regarding energy supply and russian products) and well, because of the nuke threat.
Think it misses the point a bit to say that the EU and UK don’t care enough to deploy their own troops in combat roles against Russia. Whether they care enough to do so isn’t relevant; Ukraine isn’t part of NATO, and Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons if NATO troops support the Ukrainian army. So deployment of NATO troops was never on the cards. General assumption seems to be that Ukraine will lose the war relatively quickly.
Sanctions will only make a difference if they are significant enough to harm EU/UK/US as well as Russia. Not sure anyone knows how extensive they will be. A lot depends on German public opinion, I think, given that Germany’s close economic links with Russia would mean that Germany would bear a lot of the pain, and that it has previously been more pro-Russian than any other large country. I know nothing about German public opinion, though the website of Bild, Europe’s highest circulation newspaper, is interesting this morning.
If sanctions are too weak to make a difference, Putin will have won. He has said that he will keep on trying to recreate the Russian empire, which now includes several NATO states. Listening to what he has said he will do has been a pretty good guide to his actions in the past, so the assumption should be that he will continue to try to do what he has said he will try to do. Clear risk of nuclear war if Putin invades a NATO state.
If sanctions are meaningful, they’ll tank the Russian economy, but difficult to see how Putin can back down, or be removed from power. And he has control of a lot of nukes.
Either way, we are significantly (weasel word) closer to nuclear war than we were yesterday. As you say, this is the sort of news that matters.
How should threats like that be evaluated, given that, (I’m guessing that nuking NATO troops would result in nuclear retaliation?) it would be… hard for Russia to benefit, causally, from initiating an exchange, and given that Putin lies quite frequently, and given that there aren’t really any limits to what a nuclear state can get you to go along with if you just take them at their word whenever they threaten this sort of suicidal act; you have to draw a line somewhere, there has to be a limit, where you’re willing to disbelieve. What’s the limit?
I’m having a lot of difficulty seeing nukes as being are applicable or relevant to war, at least in wars between nuclear states, probably even in a war limited to Russia and Ukraine. What would Russia gain from nuking Ukraine? They damage their prize beyond any plausible savings this would impute for their infantry. So, how can this claim that they’d do it be substantiated?
Last I heard (the information could be outdated), the US has fewer nukes than Russia. This was a choice: There was no military advantage to having more. There is a sense in which the credible signalling of will and strength, could no further be waged, that frontier was saturated, the game of war had to leave it.
He did not threaten to nuke Ukraine. He threated to use nukes against NATO countries if they get directly involved in that conflict. Not a direct quote, but a summary would be “We know we can’t win war against NATO, but we still have nuclear weapons—there will be no winners”.
Responding to say that as of now, public opinion in Germany seems pretty certain that Russia is in the wrong.
The reliable news stations mostly agree that Putin’s official reasons for invading are weak at best, but also that this is—as harsh as it sounds—not a pressing enough issue to seriously consider going to war over. Still, I note several things:
Gas is barely talked about at all on the news. I presume that this is because the government is trying to divert attention from the fact that if Russia restricts it, that’d be a catastrophe.
Some of the less trustworthy media (including the BILD, which is quite infamous for being loud, emotional, and anti-everything-the-government-does) have been virtue-signaling about how Germany needs to “take action” against Russia, ideally via the (actually in-very-poor-condition) military, and how that would be worth any economical consequences. Those people don’t know a lot about economics or politics or wars, but they’re loud and it’s worrying.
Public opinion has been moderately anti-russian for some years. Favorable enough to keep doing business with Russia, but bad enough to be disgruntled about it.
Most people are apparently not (yet) aware how big of a deal this is, and much less of the consequences this war will (or might) have on Germany. This worries me a lot.
It might be relevant though that my social bubble involves mostly young, educated middle-class people, and also that I live in the northwest. I have no idea how things are in less privileged groups, or other regions.
Generally, I believe that the biggest parts of the public are still in shock.
I myself am getting increasingly worried about the NATO deciding to directly involve itself in the conflict, both because I feel Germany would be hit HARD economically and on daily-life-basis (especially regarding energy supply and russian products) and well, because of the nuke threat.
Where has he said this? How directly?