So instead of a disclaimer saying that a tweet is false, we’ll now have a market saying that it probably will be declared false in the future. Then later the tweet will be declared 100% false and the market would close. But I don’t see why you would trust the final result any more than the disclaimer. If you don’t trust the social media companies then the prediction market just becomes “what people think social media companies will think” which doesn’t solve the problem.
Edit: I missed that future users would vote to decide what the true outcome was but my point still stands. The prediction market would become “what people think people on social media will think”. I know there has been work on solving this (Augur?) but I haven’t read any of it.
Just thinking… what if users were allowed to say “I predict that the company will say it is X, but in my opinion it is actually Y”? Then the system could select the users who predicted correctly, and display their real opinion.
Unfortunately, this probably wouldn’t work, because there would be no selection against “predicts correctly, expresses edgy opinion”. Also, it is unlikely that media companies would support this kind of mechanism.
So instead of a disclaimer saying that a tweet is false, we’ll now have a market saying that it probably will be declared false in the future. Then later the tweet will be declared 100% false and the market would close. But I don’t see why you would trust the final result any more than the disclaimer. If you don’t trust the social media companies then the prediction market just becomes “what people think social media companies will think” which doesn’t solve the problem.
Edit: I missed that future users would vote to decide what the true outcome was but my point still stands. The prediction market would become “what people think people on social media will think”. I know there has been work on solving this (Augur?) but I haven’t read any of it.
Just thinking… what if users were allowed to say “I predict that the company will say it is X, but in my opinion it is actually Y”? Then the system could select the users who predicted correctly, and display their real opinion.
Unfortunately, this probably wouldn’t work, because there would be no selection against “predicts correctly, expresses edgy opinion”. Also, it is unlikely that media companies would support this kind of mechanism.