Importantly, the oracle in the story is not making an elementary mistake, I think it’s true that it’s “probably” in a simulation. (Most of the measure of beings like it are in simulations.) It is also not maximizing reward, it is just honestly reporting what it expects its future observations to be about the President (which is within the simulation).
I agree with many of the previous commenters, and I acknowledged in the original post, that we don’t know how to build such an AI that just honestly reports its probabilities of observables (even if thy depend of crazy simulation things), so all of this is hypothetical, but having such a truthful Oracle was the initial assumption of the thought experiment.
Importantly, the oracle in the story is not making an elementary mistake, I think it’s true that it’s “probably” in a simulation. (Most of the measure of beings like it are in simulations.) It is also not maximizing reward, it is just honestly reporting what it expects its future observations to be about the President (which is within the simulation).
I agree with many of the previous commenters, and I acknowledged in the original post, that we don’t know how to build such an AI that just honestly reports its probabilities of observables (even if thy depend of crazy simulation things), so all of this is hypothetical, but having such a truthful Oracle was the initial assumption of the thought experiment.