You acknowledge the bug, but don’t fully explain how to avoid it by putting EVs before Ps, so I’ll elaborate slightly on that:
This way, they [the simulators] can influence the predictions of entities like me in base Universes
This is the part where we can escape the problem as long as our oracle’s goal is to give accurate answers to its makers in the base universe, rather than to give accurate probabilities wherever it is. Design it correctly, and it will be indifferent to its performance in simulations and wont regard them.
This means that my probabilities about the fundamental nature of reality around me change minute by minute, depending on what I’m doing at the moment. As I said, probabilities are cursed.
My fav moments for having absolute certainty that I’m not being simulated is when I’m taking a poo. I’m usually not even thinking about anything else while I’m doing it, and I don’t usually think about having taken the poo later on. Totally inconsequential, should be optimized out. But of course, I have no proof that I have ever actually been given the experience of taking a poo or whether false memories of having experienced that[1] are just being generated on the fly right now to support this conversation.
Please send a DM to me first before you do anything unusual based on arguments like this, so I can try to explain the reasoning in more detail and try to talk you out of bad decisions.
Note, there is no information in the memory that tells you whether it was really ever experienced, or whether the memories were just created post-hoc. Once you accept this, you can start to realise that you don’t have that kind of information about your present moment of existence either. There is no scalar in the human brain that the universe sets to tell you how much observer-measure you have. I do not know how to process this and I especially don’t know how to explain/confess it to qualia enjoyers.
You acknowledge the bug, but don’t fully explain how to avoid it by putting EVs before Ps, so I’ll elaborate slightly on that:
This is the part where we can escape the problem as long as our oracle’s goal is to give accurate answers to its makers in the base universe, rather than to give accurate probabilities wherever it is. Design it correctly, and it will be indifferent to its performance in simulations and wont regard them.
Don’t make pure oracles, though. They’re wildly misaligned. Their prophecies will be cynical and self-fulfilling. (can we please just solve the alignment problem instead)
My fav moments for having absolute certainty that I’m not being simulated is when I’m taking a poo. I’m usually not even thinking about anything else while I’m doing it, and I don’t usually think about having taken the poo later on. Totally inconsequential, should be optimized out. But of course, I have no proof that I have ever actually been given the experience of taking a poo or whether false memories of having experienced that[1] are just being generated on the fly right now to support this conversation.
You can also DM me about that kind of thing.
Note, there is no information in the memory that tells you whether it was really ever experienced, or whether the memories were just created post-hoc. Once you accept this, you can start to realise that you don’t have that kind of information about your present moment of existence either. There is no scalar in the human brain that the universe sets to tell you how much observer-measure you have. I do not know how to process this and I especially don’t know how to explain/confess it to qualia enjoyers.