So what might trigger a wake up? Most people said they didn’t know. But one suggestion was that the fastest way would be a high-profile US state-led AI project (especially if its explicit goal is US dominance…).
This means calls for a US “Manhattan Project” for AGI might easily be self-defeating. If maintaining a technological lead is your goal, better to stfu and hope the status quo persists as long as possible. (Or if you do go ahead, you need much stricter export restrictions.)
Benjamin Todd reports back from “a two-week trip in China” on “Why a US AI ‘Manhattan Project’ could backfire: notes from conversations in China” (cf Dwarkesh), hitting very similar points about lack of funding/will despite considerable competence, and that: