Your example of a strong syllogism (‘if A, then B. A is true, therefore B is true’) isn’t one.
It’s instead of the form ‘If A, then B. A is false, therefore B is false’, which is not logically valid (and also not a Jaynesian weak syllogism).
If Fisher lived to 100 he would have become a Bayesian
Fisher died at the age of 72
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Fisher died a Frequentist
You could swap the conclusion with the second premise and weaken the new conclusion to ‘Fisher died before 100’, or change the premise to ‘Unless Fisher lived to a 100 he would not become a Bayesian’.
Your example of a strong syllogism (‘if A, then B. A is true, therefore B is true’) isn’t one.
It’s instead of the form ‘If A, then B. A is false, therefore B is false’, which is not logically valid (and also not a Jaynesian weak syllogism).
You could swap the conclusion with the second premise and weaken the new conclusion to ‘Fisher died before 100’, or change the premise to ‘Unless Fisher lived to a 100 he would not become a Bayesian’.
crap, you are right, this was one of the last things we changed before publishing because out previous example were to combative :(.
I will fix it later today.