I don’t think the timelines match up super well for this. My sense is that Eliezer at least saw a peak in scientific progress around the early 20th century, which none of these metrics seem to correspond to, so I don’t really feel like a decline is that indicative of a confirmation of the relevant model.
I agree that it doesn’t match up with the specific model that Eliezer outlines, but that model is part of a broader class of ideas with different time horizons. So I feel like this is still useful evidence.
State of the Union reading level over time has declined quite a lot.
Written sentences are getting shorter and less recursive over time: 1, 2, 3, 4.
Heh. This is a good observation.
Could it just be increasing literacy? One hypothesis might be that as more people read at all, the average reading level drops.
I don’t think the timelines match up super well for this. My sense is that Eliezer at least saw a peak in scientific progress around the early 20th century, which none of these metrics seem to correspond to, so I don’t really feel like a decline is that indicative of a confirmation of the relevant model.
I agree that it doesn’t match up with the specific model that Eliezer outlines, but that model is part of a broader class of ideas with different time horizons. So I feel like this is still useful evidence.