Your understanding of global assets seems quite wrong. These are 2024 numbers so slightly out of date. Fir example public companies total around 111 trillion now. The sp500 is around 52 trillion fwiw.
’Global real estate, encompassing residential, commercial and agricultural lands, cemented its status as the world’s largest repository of wealth in 2022 when the market reached a value of $379.7 trillion.
According to a report from international real estate adviser Savills, this value is more than global equities ($98.9 trillion) and debt securities ($129.8 trillion) combined and nearly four times the global gross domestic product ($100.6 trillion).”
Total money is around the same as debt. Private companies add up to a lot but I’m not sure anyone has a good estimate.
I’m not going to get into all the implications. But your premises are not true.
Thanks for the clarification. I don’t see how your numbers contradict mine. But if I understand correctly: you’re betting on my item 1, and you don’t view it as a problem if the ratio of total market cap of stocks to money supply is >1, given that the real estate market already is like that. That seems reasonable, and I’m less skeptical now.
BTW how have you decided which fraction of your wealth to invest into this? Kelly doesn’t apply because this is a single-shot scenario, so how did you go about this?
We are clearly looking at things differently. That’s fine. But if two people see things differently I don’t think it’s wise to map what they are saying into your ontology.
Your understanding of global assets seems quite wrong. These are 2024 numbers so slightly out of date. Fir example public companies total around 111 trillion now. The sp500 is around 52 trillion fwiw.
’Global real estate, encompassing residential, commercial and agricultural lands, cemented its status as the world’s largest repository of wealth in 2022 when the market reached a value of $379.7 trillion.
According to a report from international real estate adviser Savills, this value is more than global equities ($98.9 trillion) and debt securities ($129.8 trillion) combined and nearly four times the global gross domestic product ($100.6 trillion).”
Total money is around the same as debt. Private companies add up to a lot but I’m not sure anyone has a good estimate.
I’m not going to get into all the implications. But your premises are not true.
Thanks for the clarification. I don’t see how your numbers contradict mine. But if I understand correctly: you’re betting on my item 1, and you don’t view it as a problem if the ratio of total market cap of stocks to money supply is >1, given that the real estate market already is like that. That seems reasonable, and I’m less skeptical now.
BTW how have you decided which fraction of your wealth to invest into this? Kelly doesn’t apply because this is a single-shot scenario, so how did you go about this?
Kelly always applies
We are clearly looking at things differently. That’s fine. But if two people see things differently I don’t think it’s wise to map what they are saying into your ontology.