I was like: let’s assume that there aren’t interaction effects between the encounters either in the difficulty along a path or in the tendency to co-occur. And let’s assume position doesn’t matter. Let’s also assume that the adventurers choose the minimally difficult path, only moving across room edges.
To estimate the value of an encounter, let’s look at how the dungeons where it occurs in one of the two unavoidable locations (1 and 9) differ on average from the overall average.
Assuming ChatGPT did all the implementation correctly, this predictor never overestimates the score by much. Though it frequently, and sometimes egregiously, underestimates the score.
Anyway, using this model and this pathing assumption, we have DBN/OWH/NOC
We skip the goblins and put our fairly rubbish trap in the middle to stop adventurers picking and choosing which parts of the outside paths they take. The optimal path for the adventurers is DONOC, which has a predicted score of 30.29, which ChatGPT tells me is ~95th percentile.
I’d love to come at this with saner modelling (especially of adventurer behaviour), but I somewhat doubt I will.
So I did some super dumb modelling.
I was like: let’s assume that there aren’t interaction effects between the encounters either in the difficulty along a path or in the tendency to co-occur. And let’s assume position doesn’t matter. Let’s also assume that the adventurers choose the minimally difficult path, only moving across room edges.
To estimate the value of an encounter, let’s look at how the dungeons where it occurs in one of the two unavoidable locations (1 and 9) differ on average from the overall average.
Assuming ChatGPT did all the implementation correctly, this predictor never overestimates the score by much. Though it frequently, and sometimes egregiously, underestimates the score.
Anyway, using this model and this pathing assumption, we have DBN/OWH/NOC
We skip the goblins and put our fairly rubbish trap in the middle to stop adventurers picking and choosing which parts of the outside paths they take. The optimal path for the adventurers is DONOC, which has a predicted score of 30.29, which ChatGPT tells me is ~95th percentile.
I’d love to come at this with saner modelling (especially of adventurer behaviour), but I somewhat doubt I will.