I suppose that works for pre-scientific, pre-rational thinking: back when you couldn’t do a thing about nature, but you could do a thing about that schmuck looking at you funny.
However, now, as humanity’s power grows, we can actually do something about nature: we can learn to predict earthquakes, build structures strong enough against calamity, vaccinate against pestilence, etc etc.
So the bias, I suppose, arises from evolution being too slow for human progress.
Consider someone that may or may not rape your daughter—the probability that he does so is function of how likely it is you’ll spend your day and nights hunting him down in order to slowly torture him to death, with no concern for law or personal safety.
Consider an earthquake that may or may not destroy your house. The probability that it does so is independent of what you precommit to doing afterwards.
Sure, in both cases we can prevent the tragedy through other ways, but that’s not the main issue.
I suppose that works for pre-scientific, pre-rational thinking: back when you couldn’t do a thing about nature, but you could do a thing about that schmuck looking at you funny.
However, now, as humanity’s power grows, we can actually do something about nature: we can learn to predict earthquakes, build structures strong enough against calamity, vaccinate against pestilence, etc etc.
So the bias, I suppose, arises from evolution being too slow for human progress.
I think you’re missing Eugine’s point.
Consider someone that may or may not rape your daughter—the probability that he does so is function of how likely it is you’ll spend your day and nights hunting him down in order to slowly torture him to death, with no concern for law or personal safety.
Consider an earthquake that may or may not destroy your house. The probability that it does so is independent of what you precommit to doing afterwards.
Sure, in both cases we can prevent the tragedy through other ways, but that’s not the main issue.
(Edit: Oops, thanks Eugine)
Correct.
B.T.W., I think you left out a word like “rape” or “kill” from the first example.