The 21st when Altman was reinstated, is a logical date for the resignation, and within a week of 6 months now which is why a notice period/agreement to wait ~half a year/something similar is the first thing I thought of, since obviously the ultimate reason why he is quitting is rooted in what happened around then.
Is there a particular reason to think that he would have had an exactly 6-month notice
You are right, there isn’t, but 1, 3, 6 months is where I would have put the highest probability a priori.
Sora & GPT-4o were out.
Sora isn’t out out, or at least not how 4o is out and Ilya isn’t listed as a contributor in any form on it (compared to being an ‘additional contributor’ for gpt-4 or ‘additional leadership’ for gpt-4o) and in general, I doubt it had that much to do with the timing.
GPT-4o of course, makes a lot of sense, timing-wise (it’s literally the next day!) and he is listed on it (though not as one of the many contributors or leads). But if he wasn’t in the office during that time (or is that just a rumor?) it’s just not clear to me if he was actually participating in getting it out as his final project (which yes, is very plausible) or if he was just asked not to announce his departure until after the release, given that the two happen to be so close in time in that case.
If a six month notice period was the key driver of the timing, I would have very much expected to see the departure announced slightly more than six months from the notable events, rather than (very) slightly less than six months before the notable events. Given Ilya was voting in the majority on November 17th, seems unlikely he would have already resigned six months before the public announcement.
When considering that my thinking was that I’d expect the last day to be slightly after, but the announcement can be slightly before since that doesn’t need to be quite on the last day but can and often would be a little before—e.g. be on the first day of his last week.
The 21st when Altman was reinstated, is a logical date for the resignation, and within a week of 6 months now which is why a notice period/agreement to wait ~half a year/something similar is the first thing I thought of, since obviously the ultimate reason why he is quitting is rooted in what happened around then.
You are right, there isn’t, but 1, 3, 6 months is where I would have put the highest probability a priori.
Sora isn’t out out, or at least not how 4o is out and Ilya isn’t listed as a contributor in any form on it (compared to being an ‘additional contributor’ for gpt-4 or ‘additional leadership’ for gpt-4o) and in general, I doubt it had that much to do with the timing.
GPT-4o of course, makes a lot of sense, timing-wise (it’s literally the next day!) and he is listed on it (though not as one of the many contributors or leads). But if he wasn’t in the office during that time (or is that just a rumor?) it’s just not clear to me if he was actually participating in getting it out as his final project (which yes, is very plausible) or if he was just asked not to announce his departure until after the release, given that the two happen to be so close in time in that case.
If a six month notice period was the key driver of the timing, I would have very much expected to see the departure announced slightly more than six months from the notable events, rather than (very) slightly less than six months before the notable events. Given Ilya was voting in the majority on November 17th, seems unlikely he would have already resigned six months before the public announcement.
When considering that my thinking was that I’d expect the last day to be slightly after, but the announcement can be slightly before since that doesn’t need to be quite on the last day but can and often would be a little before—e.g. be on the first day of his last week.
November 17 to May 16 is 180 days.
Pay periods often end on the 15th and end of the month, though at that level, I doubt that’s relevant.