The commitment—”20% of the compute we’ve secured to date” (in July 2023), to be used “over the next four years”—may be quite little in 2027, with compute use increasing exponentially. I’m confused about why people think it’s a big commitment.
It seems like it was a big commitment because there were several hints during the OpenAI coup reporting that Superalignment was not getting the quota as OA ran very short on compute in 2023, creating major internal stress (particularly from Sam Altman telling people different things or assigning the same job) and that was one of the reasons for Altman sidelining Ilya Sutskever in favor of Jakub Pachocki. What sounded good & everyone loved initially turned out to be a bit painful to realize. (Sort of like designing the OA LLC so the OA nonprofit board could fire the CEO.)
I agree it’s not a large commitment in some absolute sense. I think it’d still be instructive to see whether they’re able to hit this (not very high) bar.
It’ll be interesting to see if OpenAI will keep going with their compute commitments now that the two main superalignment leads have left.
The commitment—”20% of the compute we’ve secured to date” (in July 2023), to be used “over the next four years”—may be quite little in 2027, with compute use increasing exponentially. I’m confused about why people think it’s a big commitment.
It seems like it was a big commitment because there were several hints during the OpenAI coup reporting that Superalignment was not getting the quota as OA ran very short on compute in 2023, creating major internal stress (particularly from Sam Altman telling people different things or assigning the same job) and that was one of the reasons for Altman sidelining Ilya Sutskever in favor of Jakub Pachocki. What sounded good & everyone loved initially turned out to be a bit painful to realize. (Sort of like designing the OA LLC so the OA nonprofit board could fire the CEO.)
EDIT: speak of the devil: https://x.com/janleike/status/1791498178346549382 Note Leike has to be very cautious in his wording. EDITEDIT: and further confirmed as predating the coup and thus almost certainly contributing to why Ilya flipped.
I agree it’s not a large commitment in some absolute sense. I think it’d still be instructive to see whether they’re able to hit this (not very high) bar.
Instead of the compute, can we have some extra time instead, i.e., a pause in capabilities research?