Yes, that was a pretty terrible take. Markets quite clearly do not price externalities well, and never have done. So long as any given investor rates their specific investment as being unlikely to tip the balance into doom, they get the upside of directly financially benefiting from major economic growth due to AI, and essentially the same downside risk as if they didn’t invest. Arguments like “short some markets, or go long volatility, and then send those profits to Somalia to mitigate suffering for a few years before the whole world ends” are obviously not even trying to seriously reflect the widespread investment decisions that affect real markets.
Yes, that was a pretty terrible take. Markets quite clearly do not price externalities well, and never have done. So long as any given investor rates their specific investment as being unlikely to tip the balance into doom, they get the upside of directly financially benefiting from major economic growth due to AI, and essentially the same downside risk as if they didn’t invest. Arguments like “short some markets, or go long volatility, and then send those profits to Somalia to mitigate suffering for a few years before the whole world ends” are obviously not even trying to seriously reflect the widespread investment decisions that affect real markets.