For the cloth mask they got a 5% reduction in seroprevalence (equivalent to 15% for 100% increase) and for surgical masks they got an 9.3% reduction (equivalent to 28% for 100% increase).
I unequivocally lost the bet and will send my donation. Let me know if you have a preferred charity.
Sure.
My current belief state is that cloth masks will reduce case load by ~15% and surgical masks by ~20%.
Without altering the bet I’m curious as to what your belief state is.
The study was just released https://www.poverty-action.org/study/impact-mask-distribution-and-promotion-mask-uptake-and-covid-19-bangladesh
For the cloth mask they got a 5% reduction in seroprevalence (equivalent to 15% for 100% increase) and for surgical masks they got an 9.3% reduction (equivalent to 28% for 100% increase).
I unequivocally lost the bet and will send my donation. Let me know if you have a preferred charity.
Givewell’s fine!
Thanks again for caring about this.