Cybersecurity — this is balanced by being a market question. You invest resources until your wall makes attacks uneconomical, or otherwise economically survivable. This is balanced over time because the defense is ‘people spend time to think about how to write code that isn’t wrong.’ In a world where cyber attacks were orders of magnitude more powerful, people would just spend more time making their code and computing infrastructure less wrong. This has happened in the past.
Deaths in conflicts — this is balanced by being a market question. People will only spend so much to protect their regime. This varies, as you see in the graph, by a good few orders of magnitude, but there’s little historic reason to think that there should be a clean linear trend over time across the distant past, or that how much people value their regime is proportionate somehow to the absolute military technology of the opposing one.
Genome sequencing biorisk — 8ish years is not a long time to claim nobody is going to use it for highly damaging terror attacks? Most of this graph is irrelevant to that; unaffordable by 100x and unaffordable by 1000x still just equally resolve to it not happening. 8ish years at an affordable price is maybe at best enough for terrorists with limited resources to start catching on that they might want to pay attention.
Cybersecurity — this is balanced by being a market question. You invest resources until your wall makes attacks uneconomical, or otherwise economically survivable. This is balanced over time because the defense is ‘people spend time to think about how to write code that isn’t wrong.’ In a world where cyber attacks were orders of magnitude more powerful, people would just spend more time making their code and computing infrastructure less wrong. This has happened in the past.
Deaths in conflicts — this is balanced by being a market question. People will only spend so much to protect their regime. This varies, as you see in the graph, by a good few orders of magnitude, but there’s little historic reason to think that there should be a clean linear trend over time across the distant past, or that how much people value their regime is proportionate somehow to the absolute military technology of the opposing one.
Genome sequencing biorisk — 8ish years is not a long time to claim nobody is going to use it for highly damaging terror attacks? Most of this graph is irrelevant to that; unaffordable by 100x and unaffordable by 1000x still just equally resolve to it not happening. 8ish years at an affordable price is maybe at best enough for terrorists with limited resources to start catching on that they might want to pay attention.