I don’t see the problems with the reference class, as I use the following conjecture: “Each reference class has its own end” and also the idea of “natural reference class” (similar to “the same computational process” in TDT):
“I am randomly selected from all, who thinks about Doomsday argument”. Natural reference class gives most sad predictions, as the number of people who know about DA is growing from 1983, and it implies the end soon, maybe in couple decades.
Predictive power is probabilistic here and not much differ from other probabilistic prediction we could have.
Backward causation is the most difficult part here, but I can’t imagine now any practical example for our world.
PS: I think it is clear what do I mean by “Each reference class has its own end” but some examples may be useful. For example, I have 1000 rank in all who knows DA, but 90 billions rank from all humans. In first case, DA claims that there will be around 1000 more people who know about DA, and in the second that there will be around 90 billion more humans. These claims do not contradict each other as they are probabilistic assessments with very high margin. Both predictions mean extinction in next decades or centuries. That is, changes in reference class don’t change the final conclusion of DA that extinction is soon.
I don’t see the problems with the reference class, as I use the following conjecture: “Each reference class has its own end” and also the idea of “natural reference class” (similar to “the same computational process” in TDT): “I am randomly selected from all, who thinks about Doomsday argument”. Natural reference class gives most sad predictions, as the number of people who know about DA is growing from 1983, and it implies the end soon, maybe in couple decades.
Predictive power is probabilistic here and not much differ from other probabilistic prediction we could have.
Backward causation is the most difficult part here, but I can’t imagine now any practical example for our world.
PS: I think it is clear what do I mean by “Each reference class has its own end” but some examples may be useful. For example, I have 1000 rank in all who knows DA, but 90 billions rank from all humans. In first case, DA claims that there will be around 1000 more people who know about DA, and in the second that there will be around 90 billion more humans. These claims do not contradict each other as they are probabilistic assessments with very high margin. Both predictions mean extinction in next decades or centuries. That is, changes in reference class don’t change the final conclusion of DA that extinction is soon.