I’m also in this position at the moment, but in part due to this post I now plan to spend significant time (at least 5 days, I.e. 40 hrs, cumulatively) doing deep reflection on timelines this summer, with the goal of making my model detailed enough to make life decisions based on it. (Consider this my public precommitment to do so; I will at minimum post a confirmation of whether or not I have done so on my shortform feed by August 15th, and if it seems useful I may also post a writeup of my reflections).
I’m also in this position at the moment, but in part due to this post I now plan to spend significant time (at least 5 days, I.e. 40 hrs, cumulatively) doing deep reflection on timelines this summer, with the goal of making my model detailed enough to make life decisions based on it. (Consider this my public precommitment to do so; I will at minimum post a confirmation of whether or not I have done so on my shortform feed by August 15th, and if it seems useful I may also post a writeup of my reflections).